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Subject: Re: Tournament: no of rounds?

Author: Shane Booth

Date: 03:35:33 11/05/97

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On November 05, 1997 at 05:50:17, Bas Hamstra wrote:

>1) With the number of rounds at the WMCC, what was the actual probablity
>that the best chess program would win the tournament?

Well, I suppose that depends on how much better the best chess program
is compared to all the others...  Let's say that the best program is
72 points better (this converts to a 60% chance to win each game) than
the other 33 entries.  A quick back of the envelope calculation with
lots of simplifying assumptions shows that the chance of the stronger
program winning the tournament is about 10%, nothing like the 80%
you'd like.

>I think a reasonable confidence level would increase tournament status.
>Any opinions? A good tournament should lead to a FAIR chance that the
>best program wins, say a chance > 80%.

Regards,
Shane



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