Author: Shane Booth
Date: 03:35:33 11/05/97
Go up one level in this thread
On November 05, 1997 at 05:50:17, Bas Hamstra wrote: >1) With the number of rounds at the WMCC, what was the actual probablity >that the best chess program would win the tournament? Well, I suppose that depends on how much better the best chess program is compared to all the others... Let's say that the best program is 72 points better (this converts to a 60% chance to win each game) than the other 33 entries. A quick back of the envelope calculation with lots of simplifying assumptions shows that the chance of the stronger program winning the tournament is about 10%, nothing like the 80% you'd like. >I think a reasonable confidence level would increase tournament status. >Any opinions? A good tournament should lead to a FAIR chance that the >best program wins, say a chance > 80%. Regards, Shane
This page took 0.01 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.