Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 23:11:40 08/17/00
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On August 17, 2000 at 23:43:57, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: [snip] >>Assuming a doubling of CPU power every year, how long until Diep can achieve 18 >>plies on average at 40/2? > >Oh well in wcc 99 at 3 minutes a move at a quad xeon from Bob, >with 400mb hash in endgame i searched always 15 to 20 ply. > >However endgame of DIEP was real BAD then. Now after i improved endgame >considerable, it suddenly searches a lot less there! i haven't figured >out yet why it doesn't search that deep in endgame anymore. > >My focus obviously is not at depth, but at evaluation! >That is, first get a few plies, then fix evaluation! > >At 5:43 AM here it's hard to calculate, taking into account bigger >hashtables as i have now! > >First let's do a few experiments next few weeks with this 256mb RAM dual 800, >then after that let's extrapolate it! We can do the same calculation for Crafty fairly easily. The CAP database has an average of 13 plies at 12 minutes of CPU time. It is predominated by opening positions, but we'll call it good enough as an average. That is 12 minutes of PII 300 MHz to reach that depth. If we assume an average branching factor of 3, that would give 36 minutes to 14 ply, 108 minutes to 15 ply, 324 minutes to 16 ply, 972 minutes to 17 ply and 2916 minutes to 18 ply. Now, this is only a PII 300. If we up that to 900 MHz machine we are back to 972 minutes. Obviously, you could do a lot better on an 8 CPU machine or something exotic like that, but we will stick to "state of the art and yet not out of reach" machines of today. 40 moves in 2 hours averages 3 minutes per move. 972/3 = 324 times faster. That would mean in 9 years, by hardware advances alone, Crafty should make about 18 plies on average at tournament time controls on a single CPU, fairly state-of-the-art machine. On the other hand, it seems that a 64 CPU Alpha might be right about that neighborhood in power (give or take a factor of 2). So if you have a fat wallet, maybe nine years from now is tomorrow.
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