Author: Uri Blass
Date: 13:09:53 08/31/00
Go up one level in this thread
On August 31, 2000 at 15:59:44, Dann Corbit wrote: >On August 31, 2000 at 15:41:39, stuart taylor wrote: > >>If you had D.O. 200 plies brute force for every move, I think there can be no >>question about it, that GM will always lose! If one time it was a draw, the GM >>could be justly proud of himself, even if he was world champion. >>I can't imagine how much mhz that would be, though. >>S.Taylor (maybe 1 with 6-700 naughts). > >A trillion terahertz computer could come nowhere close to 200 plies. Probably >closer to 20. Consider this little list: >White(1): perft 2 >total moves=400 time=0.00 >White(1): perft 3 >total moves=8902 time=0.01 >White(1): perft 4 >total moves=197281 time=0.29 >White(1): perft 5 >total moves=4865609 time=6.60 >White(1): perft 6 >total moves=119060324 time=164.04 > >Draw yourself a graph. Imagine what time looks like at 20. That search would >play infallible chess, but most real searches don't work like that. They >examine the square root of the node counts. So work out about what it will look >like at 20, and take the square root. You will still find that the square root >of a truly ridiculous number is still a ridiculous number. > >With massive pruning, it might get deeper, but then it would be open to errors >like null move zugzwang situations, etc. > >Dann Corbit makes a prophecy: >"Computers will *never* (and I do mean never, ever, ever no matter how many >years forward -- millions of years, billions of years, trillions of years) fully >examine 200 plies forward at tournament time controls of 40/2." If we assume that they get twice faster every 18 monthes they need less than 900 years to examine 200 plies forward. In the case that they get twice faster every 18 monthes they can see 2 plies deeper in 9 years(assuming a branching factor of 8). They can see 200 plies deeper than today in only 900 years(assuming a branching factor of 8). I do not believe in this assumption but the question is when do you expect the improvement in hardware to stop. Uri
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.