Author: Peter Berger
Date: 08:35:53 12/25/00
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On December 25, 2000 at 10:08:44, Amir Ban wrote: >On December 24, 2000 at 13:11:49, Christophe Theron wrote: > >>On December 24, 2000 at 09:09:27, Jeroen Noomen wrote: >> >>>My congratulations to Vishy Anand, for winning the >>>FIDE World Championship 2000! >>> >>>3,5-0,5 in the final against Shirov, that leaves no >>>discussion whatsoever. Anand was the best, remained >>>unbeaten and scored a clear victory in the final. >>>Well done! >>> >>>Jeroen >> >> >>I am still absolutely amazed that a World Championship can be decided this way. >> >>A score of 3.5-0.5 is not statistically significant, not even with a low >>confidence. >> >>It is now clear, at least amongst the experienced computers chess operators, >>that such a result means NOTHING. >> >>I think that the computer chess community is on some topics much more advanced >>than the human chess community. For example the human chess community has >>adopted the ELO rating system, but still ignores most of the basic rules of this >>system (margin of error, level of confidence). The computer chess community is >>aware of these rules, and you can find these parameters published in the SSDF >>rating list for example. >> >> >> >> Christophe > >Chess games are not random events. > >You failed to do the math: 3.5-0.5 *is* significant, with about 95% confidence. Not only this btw : at least for matches between humans it is clearly obvious that the events are not statistically independent . It is interesting to read Kasparov's comments on his match against Kramnik on his own website , and the comments by Kramnik at Chessbase website. Even with chessprograms that are learning it is not completely clear that the single games are independent enough for being distributed in the expected binominal way . But the data seems to suggest that the learning doesn't play a too big role at present . > >I noticed another statistic which *is* significant: It's always the bad results >that are not significant. The good ones are accepted without question. > >Amir
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