Author: Bruce Moreland
Date: 11:28:15 12/26/00
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On December 26, 2000 at 09:59:45, Uri Blass wrote: >It seems that there are more draws between humans. > >If you look at the match between kramnik and kasparov there were 13 draws out of >15. > >If you assume probability of 25% for the winner,5% for the loser and 70% draws >then the standard deviation is smaller and you need less games to get >significant result. If the draw percentage is 70%, you are right. 75 points should win that one out about 87% of the time. But Kasparov should have been about to get 7.5 out of 15.0 93% of the time, and win it outright 82% of the time. How many did he get, 6.5? He should have gotten that score 0.5% of the time. But I don't think you can assume these huge draw percentages are "normal" either. GM games are usually in some larger context. They achieve a winning advantage in a match or tournament, then force draws to maintain this margin. >Another point is that the games are not independent events. Yes, I'm sure this messes everything up, but note that I'm not arguing for statistical accuracy when choosing champions, either. I think it's more powerful for *us* if we apply it to computer chess, where there is much less match strategy. bruce >The first match between kasparov and karpov demonstrated it when karpov was >leading 5-0 and decided to quit the match when he was leading 5-3 because he was >tired. > >The reason that he decided to quit is that he knew that he was tired and that >kasparov has bettter chances if the match continues. > >Karpov did not think about the games as independent events(otherwise he could >prefer to continue and be almost sure of winning even if kasparov is slightly >better). > >Even if you assume that the probability for kasparov to win a game is 0.2 and >the probability of karpov to win a game is 0.1(I ignored white and black for >doing the problem more simple) karpov had probability of 19/27 to win but karpov >understood that the situation is worse than that and starting a new match from >0-0 result is better for him. > >Uri
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