Author: Ricardo Gibert
Date: 19:37:48 01/31/01
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On January 31, 2001 at 21:46:16, Pete Galati wrote: >On January 31, 2001 at 20:44:54, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On January 31, 2001 at 20:17:17, Bruce Moreland wrote: >> >>>I expressed very forcefully that a 10-0 result was more valid than a 60-40 >>>result. >>> >>>I've done some experimental tests and it appears that I'm wrong. >>> >>>I have no idea why. >> >>Probably the model is too simple. Since chess comes in won/loss/draw, it is >>more difficult to achieve an accurate representation, perhaps. >> >>Your model of the model that you programmed might also be wrong. >>;-) >> >>I use the Mersenne Twister PRNG for random simulations. It has truly excellent >>properties. >> >>With a 10-0 result, the error bars will still be pretty enormous. Even at 60-40 >>they will be over 100 ELO, I imagine. I would like to get a copy of your >>simulation code to look it over, if you don't mind. (I once ran imaginary coin >>flips for 14 days on a PII 350 MHz). > >What, the percentage of times it came up heads? What were the results? How do >you randomly decide between only two sides of a coin? Were there other >posibilities like loosing the coin or having it freakishly landing on it's edge >and not falling? > >Pete This actually happened at poker I took part in. Two other players in the game split a pot with an odd number of chips. They decided to flip a coin to see who got the pot. One player flipped the coin up in the air and the other called "Heads!" It landed on the table where it spun around for a good while before stopping on its edge. Naturally, the player who called "heads" wanted to flip again, but the other player claimed that if he had called "edge" and it came up "edge", he would have won. Completely true of course and since he didn't call it, he should lose. A big argument broke out and at this point I lost track of what happened next, because I was laughing so hard along with everyone else watching these guys go at it. So it happens. Do you think this invalidates Dann's simulation? ;-)
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