Author: Roland Pfister
Date: 02:46:39 02/27/01
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On February 26, 2001 at 12:21:00, Peter Berger wrote: > ... >It seems to be a very common belief that with 32men EGTBs chess is solved ; I >haven't been able to understand this point of view so far . > >Availlable data and also intuition suggest that chess is a draw . > >It might be the case that every white first move draws ( at least that's my >belief ) . > >I even believe that every black answer to every move of White leads to a draw . > >Now let's take this "perfect" program ( " ... absolute knowledge, no search and >no chess rule of thumb knowledge of the type discussed ..." )and create a little >challenge : > >This program , let's call it "Perfect" has to play against a group of strong >Super GM players ( like in a typical Linares tournament ) . > >It randomly chooses one of the "perfect" moves availlable . How will it perform >? It won't lose a single game : that's obvious . But how many games will it win >? I suspect it will draw quite a few ; the move winning a piece but by some >miracle allowing the opponent to escape will have the same probability than the >move blundering a piece and letting "Perfect" escape in the last moment . > >As control group for "Perfect" I choose Kasparov who has to play against the >same gang of masters ; I think it is very likely that he will perfom better and >gain more points than "Perfect" that suddenly won't look that perfect anymore . > IIRC this already happened in the Nine Men Morris (Mühle) Computer Championship. the "perfect" program (from ETH Zürich) played too many draws against weaker opponents. >In fact this effect can be clearly observed today already IMHO ; take a critical >drawn tablebase position and play it on the weaker side against a typical >chessprogram that uses tablebases ; you will often have a much easier time >getting a draw ( as for example in KRP-KR it will simply sack the pawn ( a >"perfect" move )) compaired to playing against it with tablebases disabled . I >have seen _many_ games where the tablebase program let the opponent escape in a >much easier draw . > >So without something like a "swindle" mode I am not sure that it is beneficial >to even use the TBs if you are on the stronger side in a drawn tablebase >position . > >pete yes, it is necessary to distinguish between draws and draws. Everyone with a tablebase program has seen such embarrasing situations and hopefully has drawn the conclusions. Roland
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