Author: José de Jesús García Ruvalcaba
Date: 07:34:01 08/24/01
Go up one level in this thread
On August 24, 2001 at 10:16:48, Uri Blass wrote: >On August 24, 2001 at 10:06:32, Miguel A. Ballicora wrote: > >>On August 24, 2001 at 07:51:16, Uri Blass wrote: >> >>>On August 24, 2001 at 07:29:21, Günther Simon wrote: >>> >>>>On August 24, 2001 at 07:15:30, Uri Blass wrote: >>>> >>>>>On August 24, 2001 at 07:06:51, Uri Blass wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Here are the results by >>>>>>elostat program >>>>>> >>>>>>You can see that shredder is only 3th place micro based on the performance. >>>>>>Shredder is the world Micro champion by definition but Tiger and Rebel had a >>>>>>better performance. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>1 Deep Junior 7 : 2745 228 281 9 88.9 % 2384 22.2 % >>>>>>2 Quest (DeepFritz) : 2550 266 169 9 66.7 % 2430 44.4 % >>>>>>3 Chess Tiger 14.6 Gambit Tiger : 2499 291 229 9 55.6 % 2461 22.2 % >>>>>>4 Crafty 18.10X : 2467 291 165 9 55.6 % 2428 44.4 % >>>>>>5 Rebel : 2466 291 229 9 55.6 % 2428 22.2 % >>>>>>6 Shredder : 2466 266 249 9 66.7 % 2346 22.2 % >>>>>>7 Goliath : 2421 291 165 9 55.6 % 2382 44.4 % >>>>>>8 Gromit 3.9.5 : 2364 278 201 9 61.1 % 2285 33.3 % >>>>>>9 Ferret : 2359 291 229 9 55.6 % 2320 22.2 >>>>>>%10 Gandalf 5.0 : 2310 291 229 9 55.6 % 2271 22.2 >>>>>>% >>>>>>11 ParSOS : 2256 291 229 9 55.6 % 2217 22.2 % >>>>>>12 Diep : 2227 165 291 9 44.4 % 2265 44.4 % >>>>>>13 IsiChess X : 2166 201 278 9 38.9 % 2245 33.3 % >>>>>>14 Tao : 2165 229 291 9 44.4 % 2203 22.2 % >>>>>>15 Ruy Lopez : 2118 366 266 9 33.3 % 2238 0.0 % >>>>>>16 Pharaon : 2082 169 266 9 33.3 % 2202 44.4 % >>>>>>17 SpiderGirl : 2014 213 255 9 27.8 % 2180 33.3 % >>>>>>18 XiNiX : 1724 400 108 9 5.6 % 2216 11.1 % >>>>>> >>>>>>congratulation also for the Deep Junior team for winning the event convincingly >>>>>>when the difference from the second place is almost 200 elo and the hardware >>>>>>explain less than 70 elo difference. >>>>>> >>>>>>Uri >>>>> >>>>>I can add that I think that it may be a better idea to use elostat to decide >>>>>about the world champion in the future. >>>>> >>>>>I know that a lot of people are going to disagree but it is my opinion. >>>>>I prefer a complicated method that does more justive and not a simple method. >>>>> >>>>>Uri >>>> >>>> >>>>Sorry Uri - but this is really nonsens. >>>>You cant use ELO-Stat on a Swiss Tournament with 9 rounds as >>>>it is described by the author. ELO-Stat is designed to calculate >>>>ratings out of a pool of unknown rated progs with a very very lot >>>>of games. >>>>Therefor if you take a closer look at your table you would see that >>>>the error margin is at least 435!pts (Pharaon) and max 632!! (RuyLopez). >>>>And would you really believe Parallel SOS to be at 2256? :)) >>> >>>The question is not which program is better. >>>competitions of 9 rounds are not supposed to answer this question. >>> >>>The question is which program did better result. >>>The elostat answer this question better than the ranking >> >>You forget the tournament strategy. Many times, you can adjust the contempt >>because you know that a draw is extremely convenient or will give you the >>title right away. Not to mention the selection of more or less agressive opening >>books for a special round. Sometimes, a draw is the same as a loss and you risk. >>That throws away any significance of a performance ELO in a 9 round tournament. >>This also applies for any human tournament. >> >>You can also have the weird situation where you got 8.5/9 and the one with 8/9 >>has a better elo performance. They drew each other but a couple of opponents >>that play the 1st started to crash many games aftewards because of late minute >>changes in the code etc. That was totally out of control of the winner. > > >I think that it is not logical >If you get 8.5/9 your results are not worse than a player who got 8/9 and drew >against you. > >We look for a stable rating >Suppose that you got 8.5/9 >Suppose that the rating of the player you drew is better than your rating >I can prove that your rating is not stable and is going to get bigger after the >tournament. > >you do not lose rating from winning 8 games and the rating of the opponents is >not important. >you win rating from drawing one game against a player with better elo rating so >the total result is that you earn rating. > > >If the elostat let situation when 8/9 is better than 8.5/9 including a draw >between the 2 best players then something is wrong with the elostat program. > >Uri Hi Uri, plese try the following experiment with elostat. 1. Players A, B, and C play each other, with the following individual results: A beats B 99.5 to 0.5 B beats C 99.5 to 0.5 A beats C 100 to 0 Which ratings do you get for A, B and C using Elostat? 2. The same players, but with the following results: A beats B 99.5 to 0.5 B beats C 99.5 to 0.5 Same question as for part 1. If the program behaves correctly, the rating of A for part 1 should not be lower as the rating of A for part 2. José.
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