Author: Thomas Mayer
Date: 19:09:14 09/26/01
Go up one level in this thread
Hi Bob, >> Or if the opponent move is forced, I ponder the response. >> Or if the opponent move is obvious or takes most of the search time etc., I >> ponder the response. > > > Here is the problem.. I had to explain this to Komputer Korner a few years > ago > as well... > > If you correctly predict your opponent's move at least 50% of the time, or > more, then the way we currently ponder can _not_ be improved on. Because in > at least 50% of the cases, we will be correct, and we focus all our search > time on the _right_ move. If our target time is 3 minutes, and our opponent > makes a move after 3 minutes or longer, we can move instantly and use no time > on our clock. > For any other scheme, you are going to split your search time among at _least_ > two moves and more likely more than that. That means that after your opponent > searches for 3 minutes and makes a move, you haven't searched more than 90 > seconds on any one move. You have to keep going for another 90 seconds if one > of the two moves you have been fiddling with is correct. And if not, you have > to spend a full 3 minutes. So best case is you save 90 seconds. If you could > narrow your pondering to 2 moves, and the opponent _always_ played one of > those two moves, you will save 90 seconds every move, where I save 180 > seconds every other move (assuming a 50% prediction rate). We are "even". > But I know I am going to be wrong one of every two moves (actually less, as > against GM players in long games I get 75-80% right generally). But if you > fiddle with more than 2 moves, you will lose big time, because if you try 3, > you will spend 60 seconds on each, and when your opponent moves you only > saved 60 seconds if he plays one of your three possibilities. I save 3 > minutes every other move. You save 180 seconds every other move. It is easy > to see which is better. > > If you can't predict correctly 50% of the time, then this changes of course. > But I have never seen that happen, at least in my case. If it does, my > opponent is losing badly. Well so far I was doing it, because others do it... but now I am doing it, because you give me the correct arguments why to do so... :) Greets, Thomas P.S.: Have you some statistics how often you ponder correct against comps ? Is there any difference between comps and humans ? I guess yes, but I am unsure in which direction... :)
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