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Subject: Mathematical impossibilities regarding Deep Blue statements by Bob

Author: Vincent Diepeveen

Date: 06:43:49 01/30/02


Hello,

I would like to adress some major nonsense about search depth
deep blue.

First of all, we know that deep blue was doing only fullwidth
with loads of extensions.

a) 12(6) doesn't mean they searched 18 ply. It means they searched
   12 plies fullwidth from which 6 ply in hardware

Nevertheless Bob again claims it is 18 ply fullwidth. Note that he
bases his claim on an EMAILED and not PUBLISHED statement from a
non-programmer who said it was Deep Thought printing stuff out
like that. Note that the only published depth is 12 ply in IEEE99,
an OFFICIAL document.

Let's assume Bob as only defender from IBM is right,
let's do some math on the MINIMUM number of nodes
they would need for a 18 ply search.

Also we know they didn't use a hashtable in hardware.

It is not amazing to see that in the complex middlegame Deep Blue searched
just as deep as in the far endgame, about 11(6) to 12(6).

That means Knuth's lemma is of course working for them, otherwise
they would have searched many plies deeper in endgames.

Knuths lemma says that you need about the square root of the average
number of moves for even depths.

Now everyone can easily figure out what the average number of legal moves
is (considering they extend checks so these positions do not count)

This was measured by me at 40. There i am the only person here
who recently
measured this, the previous measurement of 35 was INCLUDING checks
and is like 50 years old, and was just saying something about
positions in GM games,
it is obviously logical that 40 is pretty true in the middlegame.

Note that
in this math we assume a PERFECT move ordering, we do not count
the huge number of nodes singular extensions need and we do forget
the fact that deep blue proved in the games tactical weaker than
crafty would be at 15 ply even, whereas the truth is that they DID
do some extensions of course, it's even mentionned that in the software
part they did do 'dangerous extensions'.

For a 18 ply fullwidth search: squareroot (40^18) = 40^9
 = 262,144,000,000,000

Now we know Deep Blue ran at 200M nodes a second, which from
hardware viewpoint is an incredible achievement and the only
thing IBM cared for. IBM *never* said something about searching
deeper.

So for a 18 ply search the theoretical minimum would have been
(assuming 100% speedup from deep blue, whereas in reality they
wrote down they got 20% out of it this was published in IEEE99
by Hsu):

262144000000000 / 200,000,000 nodes a second = 1310720 seconds
needed to get 18 ply

We definitely need to note that in 1995 not a single program with mobility
did get *near* 11 or 12 ply at 3 minutes a move, not even WITH nullmove.

Even in 1997 it was a pain to reach 11 to 12 ply with just nullmove for
programs with mobility.

Only years after that things happened soon and fast, but a single email
from a person who didn't make the chip is quoted by Bob and believed
by some idiots here who are bad in math.

18 ply fullwidth without hashtable is unreachable CCC audience, with
nullmove things change rapid however. This is why nullmove earns the
nobel prize and the defense of deep blue must admit that in 2002
it is hard to say that a program that just searched fullwidth and
which was promoted only by nodes a second, that it got 11 to 12 ply
and not 17 to 18. 12 ply is in fact already a real good search
depth fullwidth, if i let diep search fullwidth WITH hashtables and
singular extensions, then i don't even get over 10 ply in fact.

The reason is real easy. I do my singular extensions also 4 ply from the
leafs, whereas DB 'only' did it 7 ply from the leafs. If never forward
pruning is used (like nullmove R=3 as i use in DIEP) it is simply
impossible to explain the huge problems singular extensions cause.

Best regards,
Vincent Diepeveen




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