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Subject: GM Smirin vs 4 comps - Match Predictions

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 07:18:38 04/16/02


So Far:
Sun   April 14 		Smirin-Shredder 1-0
Mon  April 15 		Hiarcs-Smirin 	.5-.5

My guess:
Thu   April 18 		Smirin-Junior 	.5-.5
Sun   April 21		Tiger-Smirin 	.5-.5
Mon  April 22 		Shredder-Smirin .5-.5
Wed  April 24 		Smirin-Hiarcs 	0-1
Thu   April 25 		Junior-Smirin 	1-0
Sun   April 28 		Smirin-Tiger 	.5-.5

Final:  GM Smirin 4.5 – Comps  3.5 (est. TPR = 2652, each win worth 50 pts)

My guess is that GM Smirin can win this match.  He is a strong player, will get
rest on key days and has good incentive.    I think both Tiger and Junior can
beat GM Smirin, however, Junior has the advantage of white the day after GM
Smirin plays Hiarcs.  Tiger gets white after GM Smirin has a two day rest.
Also, this next game is important for Junior to draw, GM Smirin has two days
rest/preparation and should be ready for Junior.  The comps need to use non-CB
openings or they are likely to pay a price.

Also note that the 4 comps scored 5-3 against GM Gulko (2597) for a TPR of 2697,
combine this with the “guess” above and the 16 game TPR for the 4 comp team
would be somewhere between 2625 and 2675.  I would also “guess” that a TPR
discussion will ensue on this board.

This is just a guess, not based on anything other than a gut feeling.  Please
post your thoughts.





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