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Subject: Re: GM Smirin vs 4 comps - Match Predictions

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 06:15:56 04/17/02

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On April 17, 2002 at 08:08:56, Walter Koroljow wrote:

>On April 16, 2002 at 21:13:40, Miguel A. Ballicora wrote:
>
>>On April 16, 2002 at 18:34:57, Walter Koroljow wrote:
>>
>>>Of course you can combine TPRs of different programs as per common sense.
>>>
>>>However, if you wish to be mathematically absolutely correct and precise, all
>>>you need do is say, "The average of the programs' TPRs is ...".
>>>
>>>A little algebra will quickly show that the the average of the programs' TPRs is
>>>exactly the TPR of the programs taken as a group.  This change of wording gives
>>
>>Actually, that is not correct.
>>
>>Regards,
>>Miguel
>>
>>
>I believe it is correct.  Here is a simple example: two programs play a human
>rated 2700. Program 1 wins and program 2 loses.  then:
>
>TPR1 = 2700 + (wins-losses)*400 = 2700+400 = 3100
>TPR2 = 2700 + (wins-losses)*400 = 2700-400 = 2300
>Average of two TPRs = (2700+400 + 2700-400)/2 = (2300 + 3100)/2 = 2700.
>
>Notice that this is just 2700 + average of 400*(wins-losses).
>
>On the other hand, the "team" TPR is:
>
>2700 +(wins-losses)*400/2 = 2700 + (1-1)*400 = 2700.  **
>
>This is also just 2700 + average of 400*(wins-losses).  **
>
>This illustrates the general case:  in both cases the (wins-losses)*400 term is
>averaged over all games.  Hence the same answer.
>
>Best regards,
>
>Walter

This shows the spread 2300 to 3100 with a 2700 average.  Nice simple example.

You left off the "/2" in your last two examples (check right hand side of "=" in
the next to last example, I put ** next to each).  This did not make a
difference since the "win-loss" was 0, but would if that were not the case.

>
>>
>>
>>>you an unassailable mathematical position.  And I think the common sense meaning
>>>is not changed.  If you don't want to bother with this distinction, I won't
>>>mind. :)
>>>
>>>Cheers,
>>>
>>>Walter
>>>
>>>P.S. Chris - When you say TPR, it would be nice to say whose TPR - Smirin's or
>>>the programs'.



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