Author: Uri Blass
Date: 12:59:48 04/17/02
Go up one level in this thread
On April 17, 2002 at 15:10:12, Roy Eassa wrote: >On April 17, 2002 at 14:54:58, Roy Eassa wrote: > >>On April 17, 2002 at 14:19:02, Chris Carson wrote: >> >>>feel free to disagree with me. I am often wrong and people catch me at >>>it. :) I get frustrated too with the hype and carried away at times. >>> >> >> >>Chris, >> >>I think my view is quite moderate and is not hype; do you agree? : >> >>I do not think we can be SURE whether or not PCs are truly 2650+ FIDE. I think >>that there is definitely SOME evidence that they are, but that there has simply >>not been a sufficient number of games against GMs who are relatively >>well-prepared and motivated. The evidence that exists does not come close to >>passing the typical requirements of a decent scientific experiment in which >>extraneous factors are well-controlled. (BTW, I DO think the top PC programs on >>the fastest PCs are more than 50% likely to be over 2500 FIDE.) Older GMs in >>particular have not spent a sufficient percentage of their in the presence of >>strong computers to be well prepared psychologically, much less to have >>developed very good anti-computer techniques. >> >>You have a PhD and obviously know what it means to really, intensely study some >>highly difficult topic for months and months (even years). One's knowledge and >>skill-set in that field grow enormously as a result of such work. I just don't >>think _any_ GMs have done substantial amounts of intense work thus far on >>anti-computer chess techniques. I think it's highly likely that at least a few >>younger GMs WILL undertake such an effort in the next 5 or 10 years, especially >>if there is any good motivation to do so (money, for example). Also, very young >>GMs will have spent a good chunk of their careers in the presence of strong PCs. >> >>Even though computers are getting faster all the time and the software is >>improving in its anti-human methods, I still think the scenario described above >>(SOME but certainly not ALL GMs really cracking down and becoming much better at >>anti-computer techniques) leads to a greater-than-50% likelihood that there will >>be at least SOME GMs (or strong IMs) in the next 10 years who will consistently >>outscore the top programs running on the fastest PCs. >> >>I think it is more in the style of hype when somebody says that humans will >>NEVER learn to do something (I am not saying that this is what YOU claim, but >>that some claim this). >> >> -Roy. > > > > >What would the following hypothetical scenario imply for a set of computers' >ratings: > > >They consistently score 70% against a large set of GMs and IMs who are older or >not particularly well-studied in anti-computer chess. > >They consistently score 45% against a small set of GMs and IMs who are younger >and pretty good at anti-computer chess. > >They consistenly score 30% against a very small set of GMs and IMs who are very >well-versed and anti-computer chess. Interestingly, these particular GMs and >IMs on average somewhat LOWER rated (FIDE, against humans) than the ones >described earlier. What would the following hypotetical scenerio imply for smirin's rating: 1)Smirin consistently score 70% against a large set of GM's with rating 2500-2600. 2)Smirin consistently score 45% against a small set of GM 2500-2600 who devoted a lot of time to learn smirin's games because they get payed 15000$ for every win that they get against smirin and 5000$ for every draw that they get against smirin. Do we need to throw the results of the GM's who are not well prepared and do not get 15000$ for a win against smirin or 5000$ for a draw against smirin? Before you answer too quickly consider the hipotetical scenerio that tomorrow a sponsor is going to pay every GM 15000$ for beating smirin or 5000$ for drawing with smirin. Note:I know that smirin gets only 1500$ for a win and 500$ for a draw but smirin also get 8 games against computers and the average GM who play one game against smirin in a tournament cannot expect 8 games against smirin in a short time and he may earn money from getting better results against other humans and this is the reason that I increased the money to encourage the average GM to prepare only against smirin. Uri
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