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Subject: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion

Author: Dana Turnmire

Date: 09:12:48 04/22/02


I have a book entitled "How Computers Play Chess" by David Levy and Monty
Newborn (1991).  In the first chapter (page 7) there is a list of grandmasters
and programmers who predict the year a chess computer will defeat the human
world chess champion in a match.  I don't consider the short match between
Kasparov and the IBM super computer to be an "official" match under normal world
championship conditions.  So as far as I am concerned the question is still
open.

Here is the list of estimates of the year in which a computer will defeat the
world human chess champion.

Year

1992  Gyula Horvath; Monty Newborn.

1993  John McCarthy.

1994  I.M. Hans Berliner; Marty Hirsch; Feng-hsiung Hsu.

1995  Murray Campbell; Larry Kaufmann; David Kittinger; I.M. Danny Kopec, Donald
Michie; David Slate; I.M. Mike Valvo.

1997  John Stanback.

1998  Kevin O'Connell.

1999  Ed Felton; Tom Pronk; Sidney Samole; Claude Shannon; Jos Uiterwijk.

2000  Robert Hyatt; G.M. Kevin Spraggett; Victor Vikhrev; Jaap van den Herik.

2001  Jurg Nievergelt; Mark Taylor.

2002  I.M. Julio Kaplan.

2005  Richard Lang; Pierre Nolot; Ard van Bergen.

2008  Harry Nelson.

2010  Don Daily; Ossi Weiner.

2011  Lars Hjorth.

2013  Tony Scherzer.

2014  I.M. David Levy.

2020  Tony Marsland.

2025  Dap Hartmann.

2030  Franz Morsch.

2040  Jonathan Schaeffer.

2050  Harm Bakker.

2056  Helmut Horacek.

NEVER  David Cahlander.



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