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Subject: Re: ELO & statistics question

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 07:34:49 04/26/02

Go up one level in this thread


On April 26, 2002 at 10:23:32, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:

>On April 26, 2002 at 10:11:02, Jorge wrote:
>
>>On April 26, 2002 at 09:29:26, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:
>>
>>>Given a score from a series of games, y, we can calculate
>>>the ELO difference between the two players as:
>>>
>>>x = -400*log((1-y)/y)
>>>
>>>My question is now, how do we calculate the error margins
>>>on this value?
>>>
>>>--
>>>GCP
>>
>>Maybe I am missing something here, but, this formula is not taking into account
>>W,L,or D. So for example if total games were y=20, the ELO difference x is the
>>same for a player that won 20-0 vs. a player that went 10-10? I don't get it.
>
>y = score, not number fo games
>
>There is a difference between scoring 20/0 (+inf) and 10/20 (=0.5)

If I remember correctly then 0<=y<=1, so 20/0 would be a clean 1.0 (100%) score.

of course the formula can't handle y=0 or y=1, but that formula is also only an
approximation, the real formula can handle it.

http://www.vogclub.com/ratings/elodetails.phtml

When it seems to diverge, it is because a result of 20/0 translates into a 100
probability of a win for the guy who scored 20. Of cause such a probability is
incorrect.

-S.

>--
>GCP



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