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Subject: Re: ELO & statistics question

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 12:54:17 04/26/02

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On April 26, 2002 at 09:29:26, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:

>Given a score from a series of games, y, we can calculate
>the ELO difference between the two players as:
>
>x = -400*log((1-y)/y)
>
>My question is now, how do we calculate the error margins
>on this value?
>
>--
>GCP

First you need to calculate the error margins for y and after it you calculate
upper and lower bound for x based on the upper and lower bound for y and your
formula.

I believe that a good estimate for the error margin for y is
sqrt(y(1-y))/sqrt(N).


Uri



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