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Subject: Re: ELO & statistics question

Author: martin fierz

Date: 13:58:03 04/26/02

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On April 26, 2002 at 09:29:26, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:

>Given a score from a series of games, y, we can calculate
>the ELO difference between the two players as:
>
>x = -400*log((1-y)/y)
>
>My question is now, how do we calculate the error margins
>on this value?
>
>--
>GCP

ernst heinz had a formula for the error on a series of games in his book
"scalable search in computer chess". i left it back in switzerland, so i can't
look it up. it took into account win,loss and draw probability as taken from the
match result and not only the overall win% - but i think there was also a
simplified formula (which gave a larger error), which only used the win%. if
somebody has this book at hand, he could look it up.
of course, the error scales with 1/sqrt(N), as pointed out by ratko, but also of
course, this is just the scaling, not the real value. there is something else in
it.

aloha
  martin



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