Author: Don Dailey
Date: 08:01:53 07/25/98
Go up one level in this thread
On July 25, 1998 at 06:47:27, Leon Stancliff wrote: >On July 25, 1998 at 02:00:59, Georg Langrath wrote: > >>I think that the time has come when commercial computers must show if they have >>a chance in slow matches. The day a computer wins 8 matches with time control >>40 moves i 2 hours against a GM, then we have a new era. >> >>Georg > >I think it is generally accepted that the top computers are still below the >level of Kasparov, Karpov and Anand in 40/2 games. The real question is whether >or not these top programs can play in the 2500-2600 Elo range. If so, they can >be considered Grandmaster level. > Your suggestion is valid. However, we need to find one, two or three >Grandmasters who have about a 2600 Elo rating and are willing to play Rebel 10 >on the same hardware it used against Anand. Is there a third party sponsor out >there who would financially support three eight game matches at 40/2? > I have little doubt that Rebel 10 would be willing. I have considerable more >doubt that there will be three GM in the 2600 range who will show an interest. > >Come on!! Prove me wrong!! This is an excellent idea. But first we should play a match with some players near Rebels level before moving up. Here is my suggestion: Bob Hyatt puts an upper bound of 2400 on the strength of the very best micro's. If we play a match with some humans, then we target players close to Rebel's strength to determine if there is any need to "bother" the good players. The idea, is to get players as CLOSE as possible to the range of strength we think Rebel is. You don't want Rebel playing up in every game, or visa versa. It requires a larger sample of games to accurately rate such matches since a single draw can change your performance rating enormously. So I suggest a range of 2250-2450 for our opponents. This is 100 points on either side of 2350. I pick 2350 as center because if we take 2400 as upper bound, then 2350 might be considered a reasonble "best guess" estimate. Bob, if you are listening, does 2350 seem like a reasonable estimate of Rebel's chess strength? Now if Rebel does poorly in such a match, it will be an indication that 2350 is too optimistic a rating for Rebel, but more importantly, it will tell us we need to wait before challenging a group of grandmasters, unless we just want to watch Rebel get embarassed. On the other hand, if Rebel does well, then we have a serious basis for making a more aggressive challenge. The beauty of this system, is that it will be MUCH easier to get a bunch of 2200+ players together for this experiment. And it will tell us whether to continue with stronger players or not. I personally take 2400 to be the lowest believable rating that a program like Rebel could have, I believe it's likely to be more like 2500. 2400 is MY lower bound. But since Bob is more experienced in these matters I would be willing to defer to him and try this experiment first, especially since it would be MUCH easier to get it going. I still think it's too early to go after the GM's. - Don
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