Author: Roy Eassa
Date: 12:22:54 06/07/02
Go up one level in this thread
That's a pretty big and important point for Rolf to have made. I think the language barrier got in the way, but I don't think his motive was bad, and clearly he did have a point. Dann, it's good of you to acknowledge that. On June 07, 2002 at 14:50:39, Dann Corbit wrote: >On June 07, 2002 at 05:18:23, José Carlos wrote: > >> >> Dann, I admire your patience. Having to explain the same ideas over and over, >>to someone who doesn't want to or can't understand, must be an exasperating >>task. > >And at the same time, some good points are raised by the dissenting voices. The >matter of control in an experiment is a crucial one. I have seen many >experiments run, even by a staff of PHD's, where the control of the experimental >design was a very poor one. We should be forced to think about what is allowed >to vary and what must stay the same. We should contemplate what we are >measuring and also what we are not able to measure. It is also important to >consider the overall experiment in with the conclusions which we want to draw. > >If more than one thing is allowed to vary, we cannot say which thing caused the >improvement. > >For instance, the program version changes, the opening book changes and the >hardware changes. Was it the program version change or the opening book change >or the hardware change that resulted in a change in strength? We cannot say. >We can only say "This system appears to be stronger than that system" but not >'why' the strength difference appears. > >One example of this problem is that people will see hardware increase in the >SSDF list and use this to make projections about MHz increase to increase in >ELO. Unfortunately, other variables have changed at the same time. So we >cannot say with any certainty that the strength change was due to the hardware. > >We tend to make models in our mind and to simplify them to get simple answers. >But Einstein said something pertinant: >"Things should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler." > >> If, in addition to the lack of understanding, there's premeditation and will >>to mess, the task becomes even harder. >> The good thing is that, after so many posts explaining how ELO system works, >>there won't be a person on earth who don't understand it ;) >> >> José C. >> >>PS.: I kind of enjoy this thread.
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