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Subject: Re: New and final solution of the Monty Hall Dilemma *Conclusion*

Author: Sune Fischer

Date: 04:02:20 09/27/02

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On September 27, 2002 at 06:47:56, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>Here in the debate between Uri and Sune the problem becomes very clear. People
>>>have a tendence to prove as true what they think to be true. But that proves
>>>nothing but weak education in science.
>>
>>Funny, I was thinking the same thing about you.
>
>You felt being addressed here?

In a way, my procedure is to figure out what is the truth, and then prove it.
It's kind of hard to do it the other way I think.


>>> It is possible to understand that the host has to
>>>open a wrong door but it is not clear from the question.
>>
>>"You pick a door-;say No. 1-;and the host, who knows what's behind the doors,
>>opens another door-;say No. 3-;which has a goat"
>>
>>None of us are native english speakers, so perhaps we can get a ruling from
>>someone else.
>>Does the above quote say if he opens a door or not?
>
>It's not a question of English but of logic. How could you ever conclude from 1
>event on "all" events? It's trivial. Whether in Chinese or Marsian.

Yes it is a question of logic.
This isn't 1 event, this is an implication: you choose door => host opens door.

>>>If his strategy is
>>>always to open a door is not clear from the question and the only information
>>>that we know for sure is that he opened a door."
>>
>>No it says he "opens a door", not "opened" a door, so you know for sure that he
>>will do it always.
>
>You misunderstand me. He opens a door, ok. So we know by now that he opened 1
>door. But we do not know what happens tomorrow. At least in logic. You miss
>completely the question Marilyn had to answer. And therefore I tried to explain
>it in my *Conclusion*. But it seems as if you prefered to neglect it.
>Nevertheless you appear and want to insist. That alone is strange.

Yes I insist, see above.

>>
>>>Uri does what every scientist must do, he tries to find the parts of data that
>>>could be accepted _without_ a doubt. Because all the rest might contain
>>>interesting data, but it can't be taken with certainty.
>>>
>>>
>>>- Sune on the other side has a tendence for authoritarian declarations, where
>>>the certainty is a question of imperative gesture but not of content: "I don't
>>>see anything unclear about the question at all, he opens a door for sure, and
>>>more than that, he opens a door with a goat behind it."
>>
>>And you my friend have the weakest argumentation I have ever seen in my life,
>>you never ever get to the point. When you finally get caught in you own web you
>>run away saying you really meant something else.
>>
>>To be precise and to the point is a crucial ability for the scientist, to ramble
>>on for 16 pages about nothing is the other end of the spectrum, if you know what
>>I mean.
>
>I see. You have a personal axe to grind. Go on then and have fun. :)

Sorry if I don't giftwrap my insults, that is not my style.
Do you prefer a amateurish psycobable profile then?

>>Then you start with you amateurish pseudo analysis of people, which is
>>off-topick, offensive, and very much an escape to avoid the real debate, which
>>you have lost so long ago but are not man enough to admit.
>
>
>As personal attacks are not allowed in CCC ... But that doesn't matter for you.

Actually it does, but since I didn't start it....

>>If you have any good objective arguments I will listen, but please put a sock in
>>that mumbojumbo crap.
>
>
>Ok, you made clear that you think that I'm wrong and at the same time _you_
>proved that you have no clue of logic. So - make your own conclusions. But you
>must not become angry. Science is not a good base for personal insults. We're
>not here to prove who is dumb and who is not. The same BTW as it makes no sense
>to insult people with psychiatric layman's diagnoses.

I agree, let us be objective (if we can!).

>[Soon you can read a chapter about this problem _also_ in computer chess on my
>webpage - - http://hometown.aol.de/rolftueschen/rolftueschenmosaik.html]
>
>So I thank you for giving the slight correction to my 'Moral' below. People can
>offend others also in CCC. Point taken, thank you.

Ouch!

-S.



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