Author: Gerrit Reubold
Date: 08:15:27 09/27/02
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Hi Peter, On September 27, 2002 at 11:03:56, Peter Berger wrote: >You make your first guess: cookie is in cup 1. > >OK, says the Monty guy - now I take away 8 loser cups from the 9 you didn't >choose (either he knows or he is just lucky, doesn't matter at all). > >Now two cups are left, cup 7 and yours. > >Do you really think the probablity that your initial guess was right is 1/2 ? > >Maybe this is the point that confuses people here. The Monty takes away 8 of the >9 cups, _not_ 8 of the 10 including yours. > >Btw, when it is about the three doors, the car and the goats there is an easy >solution for all this discussion. Take a piece of paper and write all cases down >- shouldn't take more than 10 minutes I suppose. > >Peter The first support for my view, thanks! I thought the 1000000 example would be better, because it is more extreme, maybe it is too extreme. Maybe we are victims of a joke and someone tries to create the longest threadever. :-) Greetings, Gerrit
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