Author: Peter Berger
Date: 08:18:44 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 11:10:52, Uri Blass wrote: >On September 27, 2002 at 11:03:56, Peter Berger wrote: > >>On September 27, 2002 at 10:43:02, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >> >>>Hehe. I want to state that I will prevent if we have here a united flight to the >>>moon tonight. I am the responsible and I will prevent such cases of despair. >>> >>>No, I can't accept. Formerly you had, in your example, one door with 1/1000000 >>>and 999999 doors with 999999/1000000. Now you open, means take away 998999 >>>doors, right? Then you have two doors, right? With - now - each 1/2. >>> >>>You know what I mean? It's not magic. The 998999 doors are away. So there is no >>>talking about such incredible chances. >>> >>>You see where your mistake was? >>> >>>Good weekend >>> >>>Rolf Tueschen >>> >> >>Come on - what is so difficult to understand here? >>Maybe 1.000.000 is too high a number and maybe cars confuse people - let's take >>a cookie and 10 cups. >> >>You know there is exactly one cookie and it is in one of the cups. You win when >>you find it. >> >>You make your first guess: cookie is in cup 1. >> >>OK, says the Monty guy - now I take away 8 loser cups from the 9 you didn't >>choose (either he knows or he is just lucky, doesn't matter at all). > >It is important >suppose for the discussion that he does not know and take cups 3-10 > >There are 10 cases with probability of 1/10 for the place of the winner cup. > >In 8 out of 10 cases there is no game(because the winner cup is not in 1 or 2. > >In 2 out of 10 cases he really take 8 loser cups. >In 1 of these 2 cases the cup is in 1 and in the second case the cup is in 2 > >The 2 cases have the same probability so the probability is 1/2. > >Hope my explanation is clear. > >Uri > Yes, it is. But this is not the game that is being played - it's all about the Monty taking away 8 cups and never failing to find the losers which is the basic Monty setup :). Your first cup's chances never improve at all - you are still with the 1/10 chance you started with.
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