Author: Brian Thomas
Date: 09:38:32 09/27/02
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Hi Rolf, We dealt with this problem a number of years ago; I understand your points but don't agree with your conclusions. I realize this is out of context: "It's objectively a 50:50 situation." True, your choice of 1 of 2 doors is a 50:50 situation. However, that is separate from your odds of winning. You're evaluating your odds of choice, as it were, not your odds of winning. "So, for your single chance, remember that and do not rely on statistics or probabilities, because they require more than one chance.." Yes, a single chance but, all said and done, single chances make up the whole. One thing I know is this: if they got us all together, and had those that will not switch stand in line A, and those that will switch in line B, you can bet I'd be in Line B. Because, in the end, 2/3 of those from Line B will be winners and only 1/3 in Line A will be winners. Sure, I only had my single chance, but I'll take it. Agree? Brian
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