Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 09:53:10 09/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On September 27, 2002 at 12:39:22, Gerrit Reubold wrote:
>I don't know what a "frafra" is. I think this argument ("chosen door can't get
>prob. point back") is OK and not a delusion.
>
>We are perhaps talking about different games. NOTE: I don't know about the Monty
>Hall show and his rules. I discuss the following "game":
>
>- the candidate chooses one door.
>- the host opens a door, but not the chosen one.
>- He must open a door!
No, that is the question, if he must. It was said "he opens", in one case, but
if always is unknown. But that doesn't matter for my point. But if he would not
be forced would you then agree with me?
>- The opened door does NOT have the car (otherwise the situation is
>uninteresting).
>- The candidate is offered to switch
>
>Is this the game which you are discussing, too?
Let me again remind you of my metaphor with the candidate leaving to the
toilette after his choice. Then he comes back after the host had taken the rest
exception one. So the candidate has 2 doors in view, ok? And for this choice
then, either the one or the other, this is 1/2. And we should try to discuss it.
What I meant with the example. The candidate can not follow the complicated
simulation thoughts of the probability friends. He sees two doorsand he has both
the same chances no matter which one he takes.
Note that it's HIS situation, not the one of the host or the experts outside the
hall.
Rolf Tueschen
>
>Greetings,
>Gerrit
>
>
>
>
>>
>>The same delusion when SSDF is making a ranking list out of different species
>>individuals. We have 8 modern combinations. With all the stuff involved and we
>>have embryos and saurians and intelligent sand and whatever. And all play chess
>>games against each other! And this is accepted because the actual best and
>>commercialy interesting progs are on the 8 best places. Big surprise, no?!
>>
>>Rolf Tueschen
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