Author: Francesco Di Tolla
Date: 02:04:06 01/15/03
Go up one level in this thread
On January 14, 2003 at 10:43:20, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>{Game 494 (MoveiXX vs. ACCIDENTE) ACCIDENTE resigns} 1-0
>Blitz rating adjustment: 2635 --> 2602
>
>Movei won a game and lost rating.
>
>Uri
The idea is that in the first 20 games you don't have a real floating elo: it is
as if you have an unknown fixed elo to be discovered and and you're assigned an
estimate that floats.
Hence you receive a "provisional" rating, which is not 100% "trustable" and
should express an "estimate" of your elo.
So you cannot rise or lower you elo you can only improve the quality of the
estimate by playing more games
In this period, when you play an extra game, even against a lower rated player,
you are improwing the quality of the estimate (one more game to make the
estimate), but not only the result (win or lose) matters but also the average of
you opponents.
So the idea is not that at game 13 you had an elo 2635 and at game 14 you have
2602, the idea is that at game 13 the best estime that could be done was 2635 +
or - delta and one game later a better estimate was 2602 + or minus a smaller
delta.
If this deltas are say 100 and 80 (guessed number) an elo 2635 +/-100 and an elo
2602+/-80 are "compatible" estimates (the two ranges 2735-2535 and 2682-2522
have a large oveerlap). Hence one should conclude you elo was not affected by
the game, only the estimate was improved, while about the opponent we can say
that he was so week that a win agains him would not affect you elo after you hav
a real elo.
Of course knowing this one could bias the estimate and choose to play only
strong players in the provisional period. This implies he could get a bad
estimate. But later, when he will have a true elo it will soon fall. This is the
magic of elo: it is self correcting system where you can win a game (and some
elo) by luck but later you will restitute what you've got withouth deserving it.
Anyway one should start to look at the elo only after the score is an
established one.
regards
Franz
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