Author: Bob Durrett
Date: 19:34:23 01/15/03
Go up one level in this thread
On January 15, 2003 at 22:29:46, Bob Durrett wrote:
>On January 14, 2003 at 10:43:20, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>
>>{Game 494 (MoveiXX vs. ACCIDENTE) ACCIDENTE resigns} 1-0
>>Blitz rating adjustment: 2635 --> 2602
>>
>>Movei won a game and lost rating.
>>
>>Uri
>
>I do not know whether or not that was a provisional rating.
>
>If it was, then how would one decide the provisional rating of a competitor
>before many games are played?
>
>All the information available is the ratings of the opponents and the game
>outcomes.
>
>To see what may be happening here, consider a few hypothetical examples:
>
>First, suppose Movei played five games and won all five. Suppose the ratings of
>Movei's five opponents were 1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, and 1000. What provisional
>rating would you assign to movei in that case?
>
>Secondly, suppose Movei played five games and won all five. Suppose the ratings
>of Movei's five opponents were 3000, 3000, 3000, 3000, and 3000. What
>provisional rating would you assign to movei in that case?
>
>One possibility would be to simply refuse to give Movei any provisional rating
>at all, in either case. Perhaps that would be the best choice.
>
>But if one had to assign a provisional rating in each of the above two cases,
>what would you do?
>
>Clearly, in the second case it seems very likely that Movei was stronger than
>any of the opponents, each rated 3000.
>
>Similarly, in the second case it seems very likely that Movei was stronger than
>any of the opponents, each rated 1000. But it would seem unwise to assign a
>provisional rating above 3000.
>
>So, the two cases are different.
>
>The person assigning the provisional rating must go by the ratings of the
>opponents.
>
>Now consider a third case. Suppose Movei drew the first four games against
>opponents rated 1000. Then Movei WON the fifth game against an opponent rated
>3000. Would it make any sense at all to assign Movei a provisional rating above
>3000 in that case? I think not.
>
>In the situation presented, Movei already had a rating. If it were an
>ESTABLISHED rating, then there is no way that Movei's rating should go down after a win. One must assume, then, that Movei had a provisional rating. Here, Movei has played a number of games, but the rating of the last opponent, being low, pulls down the average rating of the group of opponents used to produce the provisional rating.
In summary: It is commonplace for provisional ratings to be based on the
average rating of the games played and on the combined win/draw/loss score.
What Movei experienced makes sense in the context of provisional ratings.
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