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Subject: Re: Statistical methods and their consequences

Author: Tony Hedlund

Date: 06:12:18 02/20/03

Go up one level in this thread


On February 18, 2003 at 16:22:58, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

>On February 18, 2003 at 12:53:52, Tony Hedlund wrote:
>
>>On February 17, 2003 at 06:29:23, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>
>>>On February 16, 2003 at 13:21:39, Tony Hedlund wrote:
>>>
>>>>On February 15, 2003 at 07:12:10, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On February 15, 2003 at 05:24:43, Tony Hedlund wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 16:27:31, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 13:32:16, Tony Hedlund wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 09:27:26, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 08:43:12, Bob Durrett wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Excellent points.  The "bottom line" is that SSDF presented their findings
>>>>>>>>>>properly, but the problem is in interpretation.  SSDF cannot be held responsible
>>>>>>>>>>for errors in interpretation.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Bob D.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Wrong conclusion. I tried to explain the points but apparently it's a bit too
>>>>>>>>>difficult. In short : If you use a system of statistics you are not allowed to
>>>>>>>>>make your own presentation. The presentation by SSDF is FALSE. That is the
>>>>>>>>>point. False and unallowed. Instead of 1., 2., 3., they should say 1.-3., not
>>>>>>>>>should, but must, if the differences in the actual results are way smaller than
>>>>>>>>>the error in the tests itself. Is that impossible to understand?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Then the right presentation is:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>1-10 Shredder 7         2801-2737
>>>>>>>>1-10 Deep Fritz 7       2789-2732
>>>>>>>>1-11 Fritz 7            2770-2711
>>>>>>>>1-2? Shredder 7 UCI     2761-2638
>>>>>>>>1-15 Chess Tiger 15     2753-2700
>>>>>>>>1-15 Shredder 6 Pad UCI 2750-2703
>>>>>>>>1-16 Shredder 6         2750-2689
>>>>>>>>1-19 Chess Tiger 14     2744-2684
>>>>>>>>1-19 Deep Fritz         2741-2680
>>>>>>>>1-19 Gambit Tiger 2     2739-2681
>>>>>>>>3-2? Junior 7           2715-2659
>>>>>>>>4-2? Hiarcs 8           2707-2657
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>and so on.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Tony
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Thanks for the fine joke, Tony. Perhaps you lay your figer into the wound!
>>>>>>>You want to have a number one, right? Then you make tests, just like you do,
>>>>>>>fair and correct. And then you come into the period where you must evaluate your
>>>>>>>results. You see that you have no clear umber one. Now two possibilities:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>1) You go on into decisive mode and do further tests, the "list" date can wait.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>2) You stay to your traditions and show up with your list. But then, please, do
>>>>>>>NOT present the list either in the classical way, nor in your joking Mr. Bean
>>>>>>>version, but simply make such packages:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>1.-3. A B C
>>>>>>>4.-5. D E
>>>>>>>6.    F
>>>>>>>7.-10. G H I
>>>>>>>etc.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Tell me please, where the problem is with this method?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Why just three strongest engines? With the margin of errors Gambit Tiger 2 could
>>>>>>be as strong as the other top engines. I find Mr. Bean's version more logic then
>>>>>>yours. Could you please explain your method further.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>SSDF has good statistics experts. Consult these experts and you will understand
>>>>>why Gambit Tiger 2 could NOT be number one. My first three was a pool where all
>>>>>could be number one. Only Shredder 7 UCI could be included, but my example was
>>>>>more a demonstration of such a list. It's not MY method. It's simply what
>>>>>careful researchers would do if they had your results. Perhaps you don't know
>>>>>it, Tony, but the presentation of the results must have a base in the results.
>>>>
>>>>What do you propose SSDF do exactly? Give me a clear example of how you would
>>>>present the data. Don't give me this A, B and C. You have the result, wich
>>>>programs are A, B and C?
>>>>
>>>>>In other words it might well be that one day you will have a clear number one.
>>>>
>>>>The bottom line is that when we reach a margin of error close to zero, then we
>>>>can claim a number one? When will that happen? After 10 000 games by each
>>>>entrance?
>>>>
>>>>>Or do you believe that your method guarantees the eternal status quo?
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Is it because you have
>>>>>>>kind of strong wish to present a umber one by all means?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Do you also think that FIDE shouldn't have a number one on there list? Is
>>>>>>Kasparov really the best player?
>>>>>
>>>>>Please do not seek for outside help, when you run out of arguments in favor of
>>>>>your own presentation.
>>>>
>>>>FIDE, ICCF and SSDF all have a ratinglist. And we all use professor Arpad Elo's
>>>>metod of measure strenght in chess. And yes I argue for our way of presentation.
>>>>ICCF's number one Ulf Andersson have played 25 games! Figure the margin of error
>>>>there. They probably don't have any careful researchers.
>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Please let's simply
>>>>>>>discuss this little topic. If you tell me, listen, Rolf, I am not allowed to
>>>>>>>tell you, but you are right, that a umber one prog is very important for us.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>It seem to be more important to others.
>>>>>
>>>>>Yes, that was my deeper assumption. Could you give more details?
>>>>
>>>>Details?
>>>>People here at CCC seem to be looking forward for our next list, to see wich is
>>>>number one. And then they congratulate the programmer. And of course the
>>>>commercials use it in there advertisement. As they always has. When we started
>>>>our list, it was as a complement to our reviews for new programmes.
>>>>Personally I'm not interested in wich program is number one. I'm more interested
>>>>in how the different engines are playing.
>>>
>>>I can well imagine your personal sentiments and I have great respect for your
>>>efforts with SSDF as a whole but you can't stop history's progress. When you
>>>played move by move with the ancient chessboards your dedication and hard work
>>>was really sensational and people got results for their virgin background. Today
>>>- with autoplayed games - you have more time to do sound statistics. However, if
>>>simply the top programs do not differ that much then you can't call out a number
>>>one. Or you play millions of games. But who guarantees you that then you will
>>>have a clear first? No - you should accept the actual reality. And that is
>>>equality among the top entries.
>>
>>That's why we have the margins of error. So the intelligent users can make that
>>interpretation.
>>
>>>You are misleaden if you think that the thankfullness of the CC users was linked
>>>with your presentation of a number one. It was because of your general efforts
>>>to the best of CC. And the business world at that time was very coloured. But
>>>today we have a single important company. Do you want to do your job for them
>>>and their marketing interests  or for the users around the world? You must
>>>accept that if statistically you have no clear first then you can't present a
>>>number one program. What does that bother you??? You are independent! But
>>>independent does not mean naive.Why don't you consider the consequences of such
>>>strange events: Fritz8 is out for months and you don't test it. I read that you
>>>wait until ChessBase will send you a copy. But that then would no longer speak
>>>for your independent tests.
>>
>>We also wait for a new version of Yace and some copies of CM9000.
>>
>>>Because factor time of testbeginning always was a
>>>factor. All such dangers and difficulties you could avoid with sound statistics
>>
>>We already have sound statistics. It's your OPINION that we don't.
>>
>>>and certain basic guidelines. You must become independent of such marketing
>>>decisions by ChessBase.
>>
>>Yes we depend on getting free copies of prgrams since we dont have the economy
>>to buy copies to all our testers.
>
>Since we have a very open and friendly debate, please could you answer two
>points?
>
>1) Tell me what you think about the message by Mogens Larsen! Please.

Could you be more specific?

>2) Let's break a taboo, Tony. Tell me how many testers you have. I have serious
>information that it's not higher than 5. Is this correct?

No.

>Let's face reality.
>When I take your published games then I detect only three authors.

You should detect four.

>So what does
>it mean when you talk about "testers".

8-10.

Tony

>Rolf Tueschen
>
>
>>
>>>Don't ask me for the details. I am not a member and I was defamated long enough
>>>by your collegues in the staff.
>>>
>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Then, Tony, I am out of the debate, because I had great respect for your amateur
>>>>>>>approach. Comps are not cheap either. etc. To make it clear. I would not oppose
>>>>>>>sponsering. But if you said, but Rolf, look, we have a real number one! That is
>>>>>>>the exact result of our statistics. - Then however, I will continue to ask
>>>>>>>polite questions.
>>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>The exact result of our statistics is the way Mr. Bean interpret the list.
>>>>You choosed not to comment on this, why?
>>>>
>>>>Tony
>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Rolf Tueschen



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