Author: Tony Hedlund
Date: 09:04:42 02/20/03
Go up one level in this thread
On February 20, 2003 at 10:41:39, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >On February 20, 2003 at 10:32:04, Tony Hedlund wrote: > >>On February 18, 2003 at 16:11:43, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >> >>>On February 18, 2003 at 13:20:19, Tony Hedlund wrote: >>> >>>>On February 17, 2003 at 17:56:02, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>> >>>>>On February 17, 2003 at 13:36:28, Tony Hedlund wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On February 17, 2003 at 09:05:31, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On February 17, 2003 at 06:53:14, Uri Blass wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On February 17, 2003 at 06:29:23, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>On February 16, 2003 at 13:21:39, Tony Hedlund wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>On February 15, 2003 at 07:12:10, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>On February 15, 2003 at 05:24:43, Tony Hedlund wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 16:27:31, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 13:32:16, Tony Hedlund wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 09:27:26, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On February 14, 2003 at 08:43:12, Bob Durrett wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Excellent points. The "bottom line" is that SSDF presented their findings >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>properly, but the problem is in interpretation. SSDF cannot be held responsible >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>for errors in interpretation. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob D. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Wrong conclusion. I tried to explain the points but apparently it's a bit too >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>difficult. In short : If you use a system of statistics you are not allowed to >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>make your own presentation. The presentation by SSDF is FALSE. That is the >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>point. False and unallowed. Instead of 1., 2., 3., they should say 1.-3., not >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>should, but must, if the differences in the actual results are way smaller than >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>the error in the tests itself. Is that impossible to understand? >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Rolf Tueschen >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Then the right presentation is: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-10 Shredder 7 2801-2737 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-10 Deep Fritz 7 2789-2732 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-11 Fritz 7 2770-2711 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-2? Shredder 7 UCI 2761-2638 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-15 Chess Tiger 15 2753-2700 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-15 Shredder 6 Pad UCI 2750-2703 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-16 Shredder 6 2750-2689 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-19 Chess Tiger 14 2744-2684 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-19 Deep Fritz 2741-2680 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>1-19 Gambit Tiger 2 2739-2681 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>3-2? Junior 7 2715-2659 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>4-2? Hiarcs 8 2707-2657 >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>and so on. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>Tony >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Thanks for the fine joke, Tony. Perhaps you lay your figer into the wound! >>>>>>>>>>>>>You want to have a number one, right? Then you make tests, just like you do, >>>>>>>>>>>>>fair and correct. And then you come into the period where you must evaluate your >>>>>>>>>>>>>results. You see that you have no clear umber one. Now two possibilities: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>1) You go on into decisive mode and do further tests, the "list" date can wait. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>2) You stay to your traditions and show up with your list. But then, please, do >>>>>>>>>>>>>NOT present the list either in the classical way, nor in your joking Mr. Bean >>>>>>>>>>>>>version, but simply make such packages: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>1.-3. A B C >>>>>>>>>>>>>4.-5. D E >>>>>>>>>>>>>6. F >>>>>>>>>>>>>7.-10. G H I >>>>>>>>>>>>>etc. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Tell me please, where the problem is with this method? >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>Why just three strongest engines? With the margin of errors Gambit Tiger 2 could >>>>>>>>>>>>be as strong as the other top engines. I find Mr. Bean's version more logic then >>>>>>>>>>>>yours. Could you please explain your method further. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>SSDF has good statistics experts. Consult these experts and you will understand >>>>>>>>>>>why Gambit Tiger 2 could NOT be number one. My first three was a pool where all >>>>>>>>>>>could be number one. Only Shredder 7 UCI could be included, but my example was >>>>>>>>>>>more a demonstration of such a list. It's not MY method. It's simply what >>>>>>>>>>>careful researchers would do if they had your results. Perhaps you don't know >>>>>>>>>>>it, Tony, but the presentation of the results must have a base in the results. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>What do you propose SSDF do exactly? Give me a clear example of how you would >>>>>>>>>>present the data. Don't give me this A, B and C. You have the result, wich >>>>>>>>>>programs are A, B and C? >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>In other words it might well be that one day you will have a clear number one. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>The bottom line is that when we reach a margin of error close to zero, then we >>>>>>>>>>can claim a number one? When will that happen? After 10 000 games by each >>>>>>>>>>entrance? >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>Or do you believe that your method guarantees the eternal status quo? >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Is it because you have >>>>>>>>>>>>>kind of strong wish to present a umber one by all means? >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>Do you also think that FIDE shouldn't have a number one on there list? Is >>>>>>>>>>>>Kasparov really the best player? >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>Please do not seek for outside help, when you run out of arguments in favor of >>>>>>>>>>>your own presentation. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>FIDE, ICCF and SSDF all have a ratinglist. And we all use professor Arpad Elo's >>>>>>>>>>metod of measure strenght in chess. And yes I argue for our way of presentation. >>>>>>>>>>ICCF's number one Ulf Andersson have played 25 games! Figure the margin of error >>>>>>>>>>there. They probably don't have any careful researchers. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Please let's simply >>>>>>>>>>>>>discuss this little topic. If you tell me, listen, Rolf, I am not allowed to >>>>>>>>>>>>>tell you, but you are right, that a umber one prog is very important for us. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>It seem to be more important to others. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>Yes, that was my deeper assumption. Could you give more details? >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>Details? >>>>>>>>>>People here at CCC seem to be looking forward for our next list, to see wich is >>>>>>>>>>number one. And then they congratulate the programmer. And of course the >>>>>>>>>>commercials use it in there advertisement. As they always has. When we started >>>>>>>>>>our list, it was as a complement to our reviews for new programmes. >>>>>>>>>>Personally I'm not interested in wich program is number one. I'm more interested >>>>>>>>>>in how the different engines are playing. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>I can well imagine your personal sentiments and I have great respect for your >>>>>>>>>efforts with SSDF as a whole but you can't stop history's progress. When you >>>>>>>>>played move by move with the ancient chessboards your dedication and hard work >>>>>>>>>was really sensational and people got results for their virgin background. Today >>>>>>>>>- with autoplayed games - you have more time to do sound statistics. However, if >>>>>>>>>simply the top programs do not differ that much then you can't call out a number >>>>>>>>>one. Or you play millions of games. But who guarantees you that then you will >>>>>>>>>have a clear first? No - you should accept the actual reality. And that is >>>>>>>>>equality among the top entries. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>You are misleaden if you think that the thankfullness of the CC users was linked >>>>>>>>>with your presentation of a number one. It was because of your general efforts >>>>>>>>>to the best of CC. >>>>>>>> And the business world at that time was very coloured. But >>>>>>>>>today we have a single important company. Do you want to do your job for them >>>>>>>>>and their marketing interests or for the users around the world? You must >>>>>>>>>accept that if statistically you have no clear first then you can't present a >>>>>>>>>number one program. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Number one only means leading it does not mean best. >>>>>>>>I do not see what is your problem with it. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> What does that bother you??? You are independent! But >>>>>>>>>independent does not mean naive.Why don't you consider the consequences of such >>>>>>>>>strange events: Fritz8 is out for months and you don't test it. I read that you >>>>>>>>>wait until ChessBase will send you a copy. But that then would no longer speak >>>>>>>>>for your independent tests. Because factor time of testbeginning always was a >>>>>>>>>factor. All such dangers and difficulties you could avoid with sound statistics >>>>>>>>>and certain basic guidelines. You must become independent of such marketing >>>>>>>>>decisions by ChessBase. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>I do not see what is the problem with waiting for chessbase to send the program. >>>>>>>>It is not that they do everything that chessbase tell them and >>>>>>>>I believe that if chessbase ask them not to test programs of another company >>>>>>>>like Tiger they will not do it. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>I believe that they should test only if programmers ask them otherwise they may >>>>>>>>waste time on testing the wrong versions and they will have no computer time >>>>>>>>to test the right versions. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>They did not test a lot of programs and Fritz8 is not alone. >>>>>>>>They did not test Movei and hundreds of free programs and I see no reason that >>>>>>>>testing Fritz8 is more important when the programmer did not ask them to do it. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Note that I did not ask them to test Movei and I do not complain(Maybe I will >>>>>>>>ask them in the future when Movei will be significantly better). >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Note also that testing Fritz8 is more important than testing Movei if both >>>>>>>>programmers ask them to do it but if chessbase do not ask them to do it then >>>>>>>>buying Fritz8 in order to test it may be a waste of time because they will >>>>>>>>have no time to test stronger Fritz. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>I think that the customers may also be intereted in the rating of Fritz that >>>>>>>>chessbase send them because I believe that the customers will get the same Fritz >>>>>>>>as an update and if the ssdf waste time now on testing Fritz8 they will have no >>>>>>>>computer time to test the upgrade that chessbase may release. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>>You have interesting views on independance. Please come into CTF so that we can >>>>>>>talk about Israel. What you say is unacceptable from the point of independant >>>>>>>testings. You don't believe it, but then you have no knowledge about the >>>>>>>neccessities of statistics. It's not a moral or such, it's a must! Otherwise the >>>>>>>results are NOT independant and you can trash SSDF. >>>>>> >>>>>>What you are saying is, since our number one is a program from Chessbase then we >>>>>>can't be independent. If Ruffian was number one this thread wouldn't have >>>>>>started, would it? >>>>> >>>>>No, where did I say such a nonsense? Please learn English before you make such >>>>>conclusions. I think I know what you are doing here. Instead of answering >>>>>http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?284772, what you _couldn't_, you >>>>>step in here [what is normally no problem, but here it _is_ a problem!] without >>>>>exact understanding for the language of a message and try to stir confusion. The >>>>>reason why you do that is clear. You know that you have no justification for >>>>>your presentation of a number "one" and you see ccritics, so there is a single >>>>>possibility and that is stirring confusion, so that the reader should hear you >>>>>saying: "well, you know this is Rolf, what could he have to say? We, the SSDF, >>>>>are in the business for decades!" But all such doctoring does NOT change the >>>>>fact that you have no base for the presenting of Shredder 7 as "number one". >>>> >>>>It seems to me that you are running out of arguments, and so the insults starts. >>> >>>It's the other way round. I gave my strongest argument that you must create >>>confusion (it's only Rolf, it's only against ChessBase), because you have no >>>base (statistically) for the presentation of a number one. And sure - you still >>>have no arguments. Therefore you now invent a new confusion, namely that I would >>>'insult'. Could you tell me where I insult? Where exactly? >> >>Above you write "Please learn English before you make such conclusions." And in >>the end you write "Again, please try to learn English before you step in other >>people's debates." I maybe to sensitive, but accusing me to not understand >>English is insulting. > >Yes, because you take everything at face value. How could I, with my weak >English invite you to learn better English. Hint => Joking. And that is proven. What is proven? That you was joking? How have you proved that? >But I leave it here. This message will prove that are no game at debates. You >simply prefer to make _your_ jokes and leave most of the questions aside. Can you give an example where I'm joking? >This >message here does prove that have no answers for most of my questions. Just take >a look for yourself. Well, I will call it arrogance again. Then you will reply >"but he's insulting". And exactly that is the defamation. Like Sune Fischer. >Butr answers, you have not. I've answered on everything until your sentence "Tony, I invite you to think about all this - if you have time. Let's discuss this in a friendly atmosphere. Perhaps we can find a new base for SSDF." It seem to me that you didn't expect me to have so much answers. So you call me arrogant and refuse to continue the debate. Tony >Rolf Tueschen > > > >> >>>Why should I insult >>>you, you have never done me wrong in the past, other to your collegues Bertil >>>and Peter F. No, I declare that I had no reason to insult you and would never do >>>that. For me this is here more a psychological topic. I ask myself why such a >>>decent person like yourself suddenly go into such a mode of larmoyance. >>> >>>We all here, me included, respect you in SSDF for the huge work you've done over >>>the decades. When I had the possibility to ask my questions in 1996, I was so >>>happy, after so many years I had followed your list. But from the beginning I >>>observed incredibly weak reactions. I will never forget the expression for >>>critics, namely "member of the Czub Anti-SSDF gang [sic!!]". That is ridiculous >>>for me because I had my questions right from my education in university studies >>>and mathematics. Suddenly I was accused, defamed to be a member of a gang! That >>>was in 1996. >>> >>>In the meantime I published so many faults in your methodology and always the >>>main reply was "we are amateurs, not scientists". >>> >>>Let me give you the probably most serious argument against your test methods. >>>You always argue that FIDE has Elolists, and you want to imply that your list >>>would just be the same or at least similar. I object. For very basic reasons. >>>Elo for human players has data a) for thousands of players and b) for thousands >>>of games for each player. >> >>I very much doubt that. Where can I find this data? >> >>>Many players will have a record over the period of 30 >>>years and more. >> >>= One generation. >> >>>The databases of publicly known games is about 2,5 million >>>games. - >> >>Rated games? I don't think so. >> >>> >>>Now let's take a look what _you_ have. No insult meant, Tony, honestly. >>> >>>You know like I do, that you have modern "players" [program versions] with a >>>life of 12 months >> >>= One generation >> >>>on possible different hard-ware. You always claim that you >>>have a database of 60000 games. >> >>A database of 16000 games. But 90000 rated games played. >> >>>To exploit that pool you always declare that >>>therefore a modern program MUST also be paired with a rather antique program. >> >>You mean that a new entrance must play against an entrance with an established >>rating. >> >>>Then you claim that validity is assured through some 30 games of Swedish players >>>20 years ago... >> >>We calibrated our first lists with 337 games played against swedish players >>1987-1991. See: http://home.interact.se/~w100107/level.htm >> >>> >>>You know what I know? I can tell you. With such conditions you have no base for >>>a reasonable list. You have 5 or 10 programs each season that are comparable. >>>YOu have no justification to start the tests always with a number of 1500 or >>>such because the new version has ZERO Elo. >> >>I agree. A new entrance have no Elo. >> >>>And now you construct with imbreeding >>>technology GM results. With Elo all this has nothing to do. >> >>Don't mix up Fide-elo with SSDF-Elo. >> >>>You have no history >>>in your ranking. What you have is the artificial combining of representatives of >>>differet species from different historic pasts. But these "representatives" have >>>surprisingly no own history in the developments of hard-ware for instance. But >>>you don't remark the basic fault. I explained it may times. If you use different >>>hard ware you can't test the strengths of programs. >> >>How come? Shredder X A1200 is one entrance and Shredder X K6-2 450 is another. >>I thought _that_ was trivial. >> >>>Nobody in SSDF understood >>>this although it is a very trivial argument or truth. >>> >>>NB the difference to human Elo numbers. Look: Smyslov once was a World Champion, >>>right? He is still playing today.But his performance is down to 2450 or >>>something. But this is because of his age. Let's now take a look into SSDF >>>former World leading programs. Excuse me, Tony, I have no data about the early >>>results, but back in time MEPHISTO III surely was a good program. Or MChess 1. >>>Just take a prog out of that time. Why does such a program no longer play >>>today??? Why don't you test MChess 1 on Pentium IV??? That is what you should do >>>among other things. But what you do in reality is this: You become not tired to >>>test the newest versions of the company's progs. You have no interest for the >>>where-abouts of your earlier favorits, it's as if you all threw them into the >>>bin. And that makes your list so artificial and false! >>> >>>I know, that you could say that it makes no sense to let Mchess 1 play because >>>1) we had MChess7 and 2) there is no sense in letting MChess1 play on P4. >>> >>>But if that is the case then you should admit that you could NOT compare your >>>"list" with the human Elolist. >> >>Is that your problem!! Then I fully agree. You _can't_ compare the SSDF-Elolist >>with the FIDE-Elolist. >> >>>Tony, I invite you to think about all this - if you have time. Let's discuss >>>this in a friendly atmosphere. Perhaps we can find a new base for SSDF. >> >>Rolf, we already seem to have come to an understanding. >> >>Tony >> >>>> >>>>>>>You are giving your personal opinions and nobody is allowed to attack you so far >>>>>>>but what is if you simply had no idea what is going on here? You have no >>>>>>>understanding for the meaning of average terms embedded in daily speech. You say >>>>>>>but they only tell us who is leading! That doesn't mean that he's the best. But >>>>>>>Uri, that is NOT the point at all. The point is that they cannot conclude that >>>>>>>someone is leading with these 8 points and a margin of 30 on both sides. >>>>>> >>>>>>But we can! >>>>> >>>>>No, you can't! - Of course you can do what you want. Next time you could present >>>>>X as new number one with 1 point advantage and 60 points of margin. >>>> >>>>Exactly! >>> >>>Inyour own interest you should reconsider that opinion. >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>>>>As you pointed out earlier, and I quot "SSDF has good statistics >>>>>>experts". >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Did I say that? Yes, often I like irony. >>>> >>>>So now it was irony? >>> >>>Of course. It was clear because everybody knows my critic of your false >>>methodology. It's here in the archives and also on my homepage. See: >>>http://hometown.aol.de/rolftueschen/rolftueschenmosaik.html >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>You >>>>>>>have no idea what that exactly means! >>>>>> >>>>>>Speak for yourself. >>>>> >>>>>Sure, that is what I always do! I am famous for it and therefore certain >>>>>interested groups don't like me. But what is your business here? Uri and I have >>>>>a communication for months now and you seem to feel envy? >>>> >>>>Running out of arguments? You said to me, and I quot "Please let's simply >>>>discuss this little topic." So I was under the impression that this thread was >>>>between us. >>> >>>yes. But here I was addressing Uri as you can see here below. You stepped i here >>>but you didn't answer the other message I made. >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>>>>>So then you can well talk about "Let them >>>>>>>do what they do, they are not doing something wrong"! Uri, they are so wrong, >>>>>>>more than your own Prime Minister! Because they do something very special: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>They say that Shredder7 is the new number one, the new leader as you say. And >>>>>>>they give these margins! Together that means: Folks, we have no clear result for >>>>>>>place one! And I argue against the mistakes. But here in CCC experts behave as >>>>>>>if the margins would make the overall verdict ok, because the experts know what >>>>>>>margins mean. I translate: experts are saying that a lie is not a lie as long as >>>>>>>the experts have a possibility to see whats really going on. >>>>>> >>>>>>YOU say it's a lie. That's your opinion, not a fact. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Again, please try to learn English before you step in other people's debates. I >>>>>did NOT say what you believe here. >>>> >>>>More insults? Other people's debate? You said, and I quot "But here in CCC >>>>experts behave as if the margins would make the overall verdict ok, because the >>>>experts know what margins mean. I translate: experts are saying that a lie is >>>>not a lie as long as the experts have a possibility to see whats really going >>>>on." >>> >>>Yes, and that is the truth.I read more than once that experts here said that >>>possible errors in SSDF were of no importance because the experts knew how what >>>was meant. Interesting because the list is published in chess journals where >>>thousands of users read it, users without expert status. So this is not a honest >>>debate. IMO. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>But the lack of >>>>>>>respect for the dumb users is well allowed, because that is business. >>>>>> >>>>>>We have respect for the users, it's for them we are doing the list. But we have >>>>>>no respect for DUMB users. >>>>> >>>>>Oh well, that will be a candidate for the quote of the year! >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>Against >>>>>>>that confusion I say, no no, SSDF is responsible because THEY annouced new >>>>>>>number 1! >>>>>> >>>>>>Yes Rolf, SSDF is responsible for having a number 1 in the list. >>>>> >>>>>Yes, and that is why I criticised the faults of SSDF. Namely presenting a number >>>>>one that is not number one. >>>> >>>>But it is number one, within the margin of errors. >>> >>> >>>No! Within the margins you have no way to know who is first of the three progs. >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>>>I think a good analogy is this: you write a message >>>>>here with "Tony" and you supply a photo that is showing a man with _green_ hair. >>>>>Then in the header line you say "Tony" ("see photo, the man with the red [sic!] >>>>>hair"). Then Rolf writes a critic and shows that green hair is not the same as >>>>>red hair. Then Tony writes a message "we in SSDF have a long experience and >>>>>never before users criticised us for the presentation of wrong-colored hair; >>>>>only dumb users like Rolf have a problem with the difference between red and >>>>>green hair; in Sweden the two colors are the _same_!!! We in SSDF also have many >>>>>good color experts." >>>>> >>>>>:) >>>> >>>>Thanks for the fine joke, Rolf. >>> >>> >>>Do you take jokes as personal insults? Please let's not go into that mode. I >>>have great respect for you. And that does not change if you support errors in >>>the SSDF list. I think we can discuss this and hope that it could be changed. As >>>long as you don't call me names or make open insults, I try too give friendly >>>opinions. >>> >>>Rolf Tueschen >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>> >>>>Tony >>>> >>>>>Rolf Tueschen >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>Tony >>>>>> >>>>>>>Rolf Tueschen
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