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Subject: Re: Statistical Question

Author: Dana Turnmire

Date: 09:11:09 08/05/03

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On August 05, 2003 at 06:02:26, George Tsavdaris wrote:

>On August 05, 2003 at 04:51:25, Dimitris Poulos wrote:
>
>>This setting is the improved 3.23D or Dimitris or Dimis2.
>>This was the two times winner in Milan's long time control hard tournament.
>>Cm9_Dimis3 is the same attacker as its predecesor with on difference, it favours
>>pawn
>>exchanges to open files for attack.
>>
>>Some Cm9_Dimis3 results:
>>pentium3 800Mhz, 5/60, drawbook( writeprotected)
>>
>>Dimis3 - DeepFritz7   6.5 - 3.5
>>Dimis3 - Fritz8       5.5 - 4.5
>>Dimis3 - Shredder7    4.0 - 6.0
>>Dimis3 - ChessTiger14 6.5 - 3.5
>>Dimis3 - Junior8      7.0 - 3.0
>>Dimis3 - Hiarcs8      7.0 - 3.0
>>
>>Totaly 60 games, 61 % against the top programs.
>>
>>The setting is:
>>opp=100 opn=106 opb=106 opr=108 opq=113 myp=90 myn=106 myb=106 myr=108 myq=115
>>mycc=135 opcc=70 mymob=110 opmob=138 myks=150 opks=160 mypp=120 oppp=110
>>mypw=110 oppw=110
>>cfd=0 sop=100 avd=-5 rnd=0 sel=16 md=99
>>
>>This is also an original CM9 setting.
>
>Thanks for all of your efforts for finding good CM9000 settings.
>But forgive me because i think it's not the settings from various people,
>that make CM play strong, but the engine itself. Of course i believe that
>there are settings that play stronger than default, but to prove this we need
>600+ games. If i change 3-4 parameters randomly and play 50-60 games against
>other programs i would definitelly have good results due to the strength
>of CM9000 engine. Of course your settings may indeed be much better from
>default but as i've said 600-700 games much be played to prove this.
>The only settings i've seen which are clearly better is CM9000 SKR and Utz12p
>for long time and Grailmaster7 for blitz.
>At what time controls do you think your settings are stronger? Blitz/Rapid/
>Long/1 min/move+/- ?

Hi George.
I have a question. I am not a mathematician and I'm sure many who visit here
aren't either.  Why is 600-700 games the magic number?  Dann Corbit explained
that mathematics will draw the line as to how many games it would take to show
which program is stronger.  If after 100 games one program is trounced could one
not with reasonable assurance say one program plays chess better than the other?
 What would be the mathematical formula for wins and losses after 100 games to
say with reasonable assurance that program A is stronger than program B?  What
if one program won 85 out of one hundred games with no only 5 draws?
Thanks.




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