Author: Kolss
Date: 17:00:12 01/21/04
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Hi, How many games you need depends on what you want to show, of course... :-) If my calculations are correct, I get the following: Shredder 8 vs. Shredder 7.04: +90 -65 =145 => 162.5 - 137.5 => 54.17 % => Elo difference = +29 95 % confidence interval: [+1, +58] That means that based on this 300-game match (for this particular time control on this particular computer with these particular settings etc.), your best guess is that S8 is 29 Elo points better than S7.04 (highest likelihood for that value); there is a 95 % chance that S8 is between 1 and 58 Elo points better; and the likelihood that S8 is (at least 1 Elo point) better than S7.04 is 97.5 %. So if you "only" want to show that S8 is better, you can - statistically speaking - stop now. If you want to "prove" that it is more than 20 Elo points better, you need a few more games indeed... Best regards - Munjong.
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