Author: Dr. Oliver Brausch
Date: 12:54:01 02/15/04
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On February 13, 2004 at 17:26:49, Dann Corbit wrote: >Since compute power doubles in 1 year right now (up from 18 months -- it appears >to be superexponential) in 100 years, computers will be 2^100 times faster >(roughly). Lets say that they only make 2^50 (so that Moore's law breaks down >very badly). > >That would be roughly 1,125,899,906,842,624 >or one quintillion times faster. My calculation is as follows: Rule 1: At the moment Computers do a factor of 100 in 10 years. => they do a factor of 1.5 in one year. => in 100 years, we have at maximum 1.5^100 = 2.25^50, which even more than 2^50. but there is Rule 2: The Computer-SpeedUp-Curve has a saturation. This 1.5- factor will be decreasing with years and years. There is a natural decreasing of improvement in every new tecnology. Look e.g. Cars or Airplanes. At the beginning of them the improvement of speed every year was huge, now there is hardly one. So I am quite sure, in 100 years we will not have computers 1.5^100 faster than now. We could be even happy, if they are 1.2^100 faster. But this is just my opinion and discussable. >The people can also benefit from things that the computers learn. But in 100 >years, the humans will have no chance at chess, even in correspondence games. This is a very courageous statement. I can imagine what you say, but I would not be so sure.
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