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Subject: Re: Educated guess needed!

Author: John Coffey

Date: 12:07:05 12/09/98

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On December 09, 1998 at 06:36:02, Mark Young wrote:

>Many of use have played over the games of Deep Blue Vs GM Kasparov , and Rebel
>10 Vs GM Anand.
>
>My question is what do you think would be the stronger chess program, and by how
>much:
>
>Deep Blue, or Rebel 10 (K6 450Mhz) * 1000


My understanding is the Deep Blue is designed to be fast as possible, so we can
assume that its evaluation function is relatively simple.  But slower programs
often have to have a more complex evaluation to make up for the lack of speed.

If by some miracle Rebel 10 could examine as many nodes as Deep Blue then it
would probably win.  This is not ridiculous nor impossible nor would it take
a hundred years to happen (maybe.)  If you look at how computers have gotten
a thousand times or more faster over the last 20 years, then is it possible
that they could get a thousand times faster over the next 20 years?  We don't
know the answer yet because we don't know if we will hit theoretical limits.  If
we do hit such limits then will we be able to find ways around them?

Hang onto that Rebel 10 program.  I will be curious just how it plays 20 years
from now.  I wonder if we will still have DOS 20 years from now?  (Or Windows?)
Both will probably require some sort of emulator to run.

John Coffey



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