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Subject: Re: To Bob Hyatt: Ply Number Versus Rating

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 15:06:41 01/04/99

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On January 04, 1999 at 11:14:17, Leon Stancliff wrote:

>On January 04, 1999 at 02:46:25, blass uri wrote:
>
>>
>>On January 04, 1999 at 01:05:56, Peter McKenzie wrote:
>>
>>>On January 04, 1999 at 00:23:26, blass uri wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>On January 03, 1999 at 23:55:45, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 03, 1999 at 21:18:11, Leon Stancliff wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>Bob Hyatt,
>>>>>>
>>>>>>I think you could probably answer this question if anyone can. Do you know how
>>>>>>the rating increases with ply depth. I have seen a figure of 200 points increase
>>>>>>per ply. I do not believe this would be a constant figure. My Hiarcs 6 will
>>>>>>normally reach 7 ply and sometimes 8 ply in the middle game. Do you have any
>>>>>>kind of graph showing what might be expected with each ply increase from 4, 5,
>>>>>>6, 7, 8 or 9 plies in the middle game. Does the increase in rating decrease as
>>>>>>one moves to higher levels? In other words, do you get as more increase as you
>>>>>>move from 7 to 8 than you do from 8 to 9.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>If anyone else has information on this topic please feel free to add your
>>>>>>comments.
>>>>>
>>>>>A very hard question.  I believe that "dumb" programs get less from another
>>>>>ply than "smart" programs.  At shallow depths, another ply helps _every_
>>>>>program avoid/find tactics.  At deeper depths, tactics fade out somewhat and
>>>>>if the program has little positional knowledge, it won't be able to get any-
>>>>>thing out of the extra plies.  A smart program will continue to improve,
>>>>>however, as it simply finds deeper "plans" to use its positional knowledge.
>>>
>>>I've had similar thoughts, which have influenced the design of my own chess
>>>program.  This sort of thing is of course resonably hard to prove or disprove.
>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>How you categorize the various programs would be fun however, as that would
>>>>>start a small war here.  My best guess would be to simply take a common
>>>>>cpu and run all the programs.  In general, the faster the NPS, the "dumber"
>>>>>the program, since the eval is the best place to pick up speed (IE in Crafty,
>>>>>I spend over 50% of my time in Evaluate() which is fairly high by today's
>>>>>standard.  Although programs like Hiarcs are probably at 75% or so, while a
>>>>>program like Fritz is likely at 10% or less.)
>>>>
>>>>I do not think that Hiarcs earn more from time
>>>>I read that Hiarcs7 is good at blitz.
>>>>
>>>>If you were right then I would expect hiarcs7 to have better results at
>>>>tournament time control(relative to blitz) but I did not see it.
>>>
>>>Interesting point, what results are you basing this statement on?  Is there a
>>>blitz rating list similar to SSDF?
>>
>>I do not know but I know that Enrique did blitz tests Hiarcs7-Junior5
>>and Hiarcs7 was better.
>>
>>I also remember that he found that Hiarcs7 is a good solver of tactical
>>positions.
>>>
>>>>
>>>>Hiarcs7 won Junior5 at blitz and lost 6:4 against Junior5 at 40/40 games of
>>>>enrique.
>>>
>>>I doubt very much that these results (10 game matches) are statistically
>>>significant!
>>
>>I agre that they are not statistically significant after 90 games(eight 10 game
>>matches against the same opponents and this 10 game match)
>>Junior has 50.5 out of 90 and Hiarcs has 53 out of 90.
>>not significant result at 40/40
>>
>>I do not remember the result in blitz but I remember that Hiarcs7 was clearly
>>better.
>>
>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>>Uri
>>>
>>>Peter
>
>Let me get back to my original question to Bob Hyatt and be a little more
>specific. Bob, How many plies does Crafty, as operating on the ICC, reach in the
>middle game? How much of an increase would you expect from one more ply depth?
>If 200 points is a valid figure at the lower levels and you can give me an
>expected increase at the level Crafty is now playing, I can get a crude idea of
>what happens from ply to ply. At least this would be true with respect to
>Crafty.
>
>So far it appears that no one has done an investigation such as you suggested in
>your first reply.
>
>Thanks,
>Leon


I'm not sure about depth... but I'd guess that in blitz games, the middlegame
depth is in the range of 9 plies, maybe 10 (of course in some wild positions it
might only be 8 or so as well).

As far as what does a ply do for crafty?  hard to quantify, but clearly every
ply is important.  IE the p6 was about 2.5X the P5/133 I used and its
rating took a big jump.  The  quad p6 gave another factor of 3 and another
noticable jump, and now the quad xeon (which ramps out at about 2x the quad
p6, roughly) is another noticable jump.  So far, I see *no* indication that
another ply won't produce a better search result...

what we need is for someone to organize a crafty vs crafty tournament, no
pondering, and try one with sd=4 against sd=5,6,7,8,9,10 (at least).  Then
do sd=5 vs 6,7,8,9,10, then sd=6 vs sd=7,8,9,10 and so forth.  That would
give a good graph of what another ply (or more) is worth for crafty...




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