Author: Joachim Rang
Date: 04:54:20 10/13/04
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On October 13, 2004 at 07:38:13, Graham Laight wrote: >Junior's performance in Bilbao was much worse than even I had thought - and now >I have the weapon to prove it - the simulator in >http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391362 > >Starting with the assumption that all 3 machines had equal win/draw/loss >probablities, I tried different combinations of probabilities to produce the >kind of results that Hydra and Fritz got (3.5/4). I found that setting the win >probablity to 70%, the draw probability to 20%, and the lose probability to 10% >gave a 27.4% probability of producing 3.5 points - which is reasonable. > >However - the probability for Junior's score (1.5/4) comes out at only 2.02%!!! > >To those who thought that my remarks about Junior's poor performance were >statistically illiterate, I would ask you to run the simulator, and try to come >up with win/draw/lose probabilities that give a good chance of the results we >saw in Bilbao happening if each computer were equally as good. > >I await your probability numbers... Win 50% Draw 30% Loss 20% Hydra and Fritz 15%, DJ 10% that is okay for me :-) in fact Deepjunior DID perform badly especially in comparison to the other comps no doubt about it, but the question is, can or should one draw any conclusion out of this other than bad luck for Junior? regards Joachim > >-g
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