Author: Uri Blass
Date: 09:56:45 10/13/04
Go up one level in this thread
On October 13, 2004 at 10:19:32, Peter Skinner wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 09:36:13, Graham Laight wrote: > >>On October 13, 2004 at 09:09:05, Peter Skinner wrote: >> >>>On October 13, 2004 at 07:51:42, Graham Laight wrote: >>> >>>>I refer you to http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391364 , and I >>>>would be interested to read your comments! >>> >>>One tournament would hardly be a basis to determine the strength of a human or a >>>computer. >> >>This is a good point. However - the results I'm getting back from the simulator >>(linked above) are seriously at odds with some assumptions that some members in >>this thread seem to hold: >> >>1. That the computers at Bilbao had a roughly equal chance of winning. If you >>create a high probability of winning (in order to justify Hydra and Fritz's >>results), then you end up with a startlingly low probability of Junior getting >>the low score that it did - EVEN WITH ONLY 4 GAMES. >> >>2. Joachim used a 50% probability of winning in his post to get acceptable >>probabilities for the 3 different outcomes (3.5/4 x 2 and 1.5/4). However - this >>is at odds with what Dr Hyatt wrote - which is that when contemplating computer >>chess strength, I should "think lower" >>(http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?391290) >> >>IMO, in terms of what members have been writing in this thread, these are VERY >>SIGNIFICANT points. >> >>-g > >Well many including myself and Dr.Hyatt have been saying for years that >computers are not stronger than humans. They might be equal to humans but not >stronger. > >Computers still have the major flaw in long term planning, and positional >management in a game. This is where the human GM excels, and crushes the >computer opponent. > >If you talk to Amir, I am sure he is quite pleased with 3 draws and only 1 loss >vs these GM's. I am just as sure that Robert would be happy with such a result. I do not know the opinion of Amir but I think that you do not understand that from the point of view of commercial programs the competition is against other programs and not against humans. I think that if I were instead of Amir I would prefer to get 1 out of 4 when Fritz and Hydra get 0 out of 4 and not to get 1.5 out of 4 when Fritz and Hydra get 3.5 out of 4. Uri
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