Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 10:41:33 10/14/04
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On October 14, 2004 at 06:24:52, Graham Laight wrote: >On October 13, 2004 at 18:22:48, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On October 13, 2004 at 17:35:57, Graham Laight wrote: >> >>>Your "truth" is that the top computers are worse than top humans. "Think lower", >>>you told me. >> >>Not quite. You seemed to have an exaggerated expectation for how the computers >>would perform. I said "think lower". That doesn't mean that I believe the >>computers are way worse than the humans. I just don't believe they are clearly >>better yet... > >Good - this is a step in the right direction! ;-) > >>>Well - I know you're not going to give me an estimate as to the win/draw/lose >>>probabilities of top computers v GMs, so I won't bother to ask - but after the >>>work I've done with my simulator today (have you tried it? It's quick and easy >>>to run - just follow the 4 easy steps), then if GMs are significantly better >>>than computers at chess, I can tell you that Fritz and Hydra getting 7/8 was a >>>sensational result. Let me give you reasonably accurate analogies from other >>>sports with which you have some familiarity: >>> >>>1. it's like the 6 stone weakling who has never had a fight before flooring the >>>national karate champion >>> >>>2. it's like a donkey and cart winning the regional drag race evening >> >>No. In drag racing or karate participants are very "steady". Not so in >>computers vs humans at chess. Odd book lines. Good book preparation by the >>humans. All serve to significantly skew final results in odd ways... > >This "steadiness" strongly implies to me that there are big differences in the >participants' ability levels (be that engine power, skill, or whatever else) - >this is what produces "steadiness". If competitor A has a 95% probability of >beating competitor B, the results of games between them will look "steady" to >the casual onlooker - wheras if that probability were, say, 50%, the results >would look distinctly "unsteady". > >-g If you run in an x-second class, you can't run faster than x seconds or you break out and lose. So most cars are the same as far as performance goes. Now it comes down to the human driver in heads-up racing. Reaction time, making sure you beat your opponent but not breaking out, etc. Those become pretty variable thanks to human nature... > >>>-g
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