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Subject: Re: Future of Chess: Will GMs be able to draw computers?

Author: Tord Romstad

Date: 06:34:00 10/19/04

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On October 19, 2004 at 05:57:06, Vasik Rajlich wrote:

>It's a sort of interesting accident that computer vs human is balanced at the
>moment. If the game was more tactical, humans would already be crushed and we
>would accept it as a matter of course. If it was more positional, humans would
>still be stronger, maybe much stronger.

I don't think it is quite that simple.  Consider the game of shogi, which is
arguably a more tactical game than western chess.  The best computers have no
chance against the best humans.

I think there are two main reasons why computers are so good at chess:

1. Material is very important in chess.  A material advantage is usually
sufficient to win.  This makes it easy to write reasonably accurate evaluation
functions for chess.  In shogi, material is much less important, while factors
like initiative and king safety (which are much more difficult to quantify)
play a more significant role.

2. The branching factor in chess is not too high.  This means that computer
programs running on current hardware can afford to waste lots of time analysing
nonsense variations, and still search deeply enough to see the relevant
tactical lines.  This is not yet the case in shogi.  The horizon effect is
still a very real program, and top human players are able to outsearch the
best programs in tactical lines.

Even in chess, I am not sure it is strictly true that computers are better
than the best humans in tactics.  The picture is a bit more complicated.
Computers are extremely good at finding short, bushy tactics, while the
best GMs are better at finding very deep, narrow tactics including non-checks
and quiet moves near the end of the lines.  Consider the Nolot test suite,
which consists of problems solved by human players at a normal tournament
time control, but which the computers still struggle to solve.

In chess, computer hardware has reached the stage where the programs'
superiority in short, bushy tactics almost exactly compensates for their
relative weakness at understanding deep, narrow tactics.  In shogi, we
will have to wait a few more years before this happens.

Tord



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