Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 19:51:22 02/11/05
Go up one level in this thread
On February 11, 2005 at 15:36:48, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: >On February 11, 2005 at 14:48:56, Russell Reagan wrote: > >>On February 11, 2005 at 14:19:15, Dieter Buerssner wrote: >> >>>>2. Who do you think has the best chance to win? >>>> >>>>3. Which country has the best chance of winning? >> >>>I don't understand, why there are two questions. How does a country win? When >>>Crafty wins, does it not imply, that USA wins? (This seems to be implied by your >>>two questions). So, what are the exact rules for the "country prize"? >> >> >>I think it means this. Pretend the question is, "Which continent has the best >>chance of winning?" Pretend these are the participants: >> >>Shredder (single cpu) >>Fritz (single cpu) >>Ruffian (single cpu) >>Diep (single cpu) >>Yace (single cpu) >>Fruit (single cpu) >>SOS (single cpu) >>Sjeng (single cpu) >>Crafty (16-cpu Opteron) >> >>Someone might pick Crafty to win because it would have a big hardware advantage, > >Which would be wrong anyway. > >>but North America's chances of winning are low because Crafty is the only North >>American participant and has to beat 8 other good opponents. Chances are good >>that one of the European participants would be able to finish ahead of Crafty. >> >>Now pretend this is the tournament: >> >>Crafty >>Ferret >>Zappa >>Fruit >>Ruffian >>SOS >>Diep >> >>Now the chances for North America and Europe are more even. > >Though in global terms you are correct. The summation of the odds that an engine >wins you must take into account. In 1 game anyone can beat anyone. > >However in a tournament there is 9 rounds. The best simply wins. > >For example if in this example we keep a round robin (2 games against each >opponent) tournament, odds of winning are for example : > Diep : 40% > Zappa : 20% > Crafty : 15% > Ruffian : 15% > Fruit : 10% > SOS : 0% > Ferret : 0% > Wish bruce would become active again. I suspect he'd still hand you your program's "head" in a paper sack in a match. Ferret would _still_ be strong. >Then you simply add up the chances by nation and you get your result that: > Netherlands : 40% > USA : 35% > Germany : 15% > France : 10% > >In your first example you mention shredder for example. That gives already >Germany biggest odds. > >Unless you give Fritz (Netherlands) an unrealistic chance. It didn't win much >lately. > >I hope you realize that the more weak programs you add the bigger the chance is >the strong program wins. For example suppose a 15 round event with 10 >participants. > >9 SOS versions fromthe very sympatique and extremely correct Rudolf Huber and 1 >from Stefan. > >1.Shredder ( single cpu) >2.SOS (quad) >3.SOS (dual) >4.SOS (single) >5.SOS >6.SOS >7.SOS >8.SOS >9.SOS >10.SOS > >Shredder will win this event of course with 99% sureness. > >Vincent
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