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Subject: Re: Human rating differential compared to Computer vs. computer

Author: Matt Frank

Date: 15:34:01 01/29/99

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>PS. Another example. I played a guy who was not rated, but should have been
>about 100 to 150 points below me at lunch time at G30 for a half a year. I won
>every game except the last one (where I had a choice of 2 moves and picked the
>wrong one, moving quickly will get you everytime). So, although he played strong
>and often had me in tight positions (he was up material about a third of the
>time), I managed to squeeze out (barely in a lot of cases). According to the
>formulas, his rating should have been about 850 points lower than mine. But the
>truth of the matter is that he just didn't have my number. They were almost
>always close games. I never once blew him out. This was a sample set of over a
>hundred games which bucked the ratings odds. Look at Anand vs. Karpov. Ratings
>are a very crude metric, but they tend to mean everything once they are 500
>points apart.

Really, all I can say to this is that the sample size is entirely too puny. And
this topic is really interesting anecdotal evidence, yet far from convincing.
Even the Anand--Karpov results you quoted earlier are based on a small sample
size with a large margin of error.

Matt Frank



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