Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 08:36:08 02/03/99
Go up one level in this thread
On February 02, 1999 at 11:23:19, KarinsDad wrote: [snip] >I do not doubt that gross blunders can be made. The problem is that when you >compare the performance of a 2610 player against Kasparov vs. a 1800 player >against Kasparov, you can make justifications and speculations all you want, >however, Sokolov is much better prepared to win against Kasparov and the ELO >prediction formula states that he should do it about 1 time in 4. I think this kind of extrapolation is difficult to rely upon without a standard deviation to go with it. As with any probability function, the estimate is reliable for huge numbers of trials (after all, the rising/falling players will even out in such circumstances). Plus you can have a freaky streak, just like flipping twenty heads in a row. BTW, what do you have as Sokolov's win/loss/draw ratio against G.K.?
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