Author: Kolss
Date: 08:17:56 04/14/05
Go up one level in this thread
On April 14, 2005 at 09:37:06, pavel wrote: >Not yet. > >In discussion with Dann. I wanted to try out to see how many games it would take >to achieve 1 ELO error margin. While I do agree with Dann that it would take >100,000s games to achieve this. I would like to see this in practice. > >So after the first 1000 games: >------------------------------------------- > >4/14/2005 9:27:02 AM : > > Program Elo + - Games Score Av.Op. Draws > > 1 Aristarch 4.50 : 2519 19 19 1000 55.4 % 2481 23.3 % > 2 Yace Paderborn : 2481 19 19 1000 44.6 % 2519 23.3 % > Hi, The standard error (SE) goes down proportional to the square root of the number of events, i.e. games in this case - provided, as Uri pointed out, that the games are independent samples. Assuming that the fractions of wins, draws, and losses stay the same over the next games, you can expect to get the SE to a tenth (1.9) if you increase the number of games by a factor of 100 (100000). Your data would suggest that you need about 400000 games to get the SE down to 1 ELO point. Have fun! Best regards - Munjong.
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