Author: blass uri
Date: 13:24:47 02/06/99
Go up one level in this thread
On February 06, 1999 at 16:15:14, Paulo Soares wrote: >On February 06, 1999 at 14:49:11, Don Dailey wrote: > >>On February 06, 1999 at 12:48:09, Paulo Soares wrote: >> >>>Could a chess player with rating FIDE below of the 2000 >>>points ELO, win Kasparov with the aid of a program line top >>>running on a PC(for example, a PII-450 with 120Mb RAM), in one >>>match 2/40? >>> I believe that yes, it will be that I am being delirious? >>> Already had one match in these circumstances? >>> >>>Best regards, >>> >>>Paulo Soares, from Brazil. >> >>A chess player with a FIDE below 2000 can beat Kasparov without >>any help at all. The question is not IF he can beat Kasparov, >>but HOW OFTEN. The whole rating system is based on probabilites >>and it's possible for a player of any rating (yes, even a raw >>beginner who just learned the rules) to beat any player (even >>Kasparov on his best day!) Of course the probability in this >>extreme example is incredibly low, so low in fact we can say >>for all PRACTICAL purposes that it's impossible. >> >>Suppose you play a random legal move? There is a probability >>around 1/20 or so that you will pick A BEST move. I'm assuming >>that in many positions there are more than 1 best move, but the >>branching factor is approximately 40. For Kasparov >>in any given position, there is a probability of perhaps .95 >>that he will play a best move. Since Kasparov probably plays >>far from perfect chess I'm guessing at .95 figure. The odds >>that you will RANDOMLY put together enough best moves to play >>a perfect game are extremely low. But it's a lot more complicated >>than that. You don't have to put together a perfect game (since >>he probably won't either.) Also, it may be good enough to >>occasionally pick a good or very good move without it necessarily >>being the "best" move. >> >>We don't have to guess however. Given 2 players with 2 ratings, >>we can calculate the winning expectancy of each player. You >>will find that a 1900 player has a tiny but non-zero chance of >>beating Kasparov. >> >>In almost every tournament I have ever attended, there will be some >>wild upset, crossing several hundred rating points. There is HUGE >>difference between 1900 and 2800 though, the odds are extreme in this >>case. >> >>Probably the question you meant to ask is if there is a "reasonable" >>chance you (or a 2000 player) could beat Kasparov with help from >>a computer. My personal opinion is that your chances are probably >>lower than letting the computer play the game! I have played >>games of consultation and non-consultation chess with other players >>in the past and it's not always clear if the team is better than >>the best player. I think it has a lot to do with the personality >>and dynamics of the team. If the weaker player has the strongest >>personality, the game will tend to go that players way. The stronger >>player will try to conform to the weaker players style and the >>team will be weaker than the strong player. >> >>- Don > > > >Don, > > You placed the question of a form well clearer, on writting about >probabilities, I am in agreement. > I disagree when you compare games in team with the type of game that >we are talking. We are talking about "manmachine" against Kasparov, and in >this game it does not exist more of one personality of each side. > Modifying the question, I would like to know which the probability of a >player with one rating FIDE around 2000 ELO, helped for a PC, to equal >Kasparov? If the reply will be: " the probability is very small ", >I changes the question: which would be then, in his opinion, the necessary ELO >so that a player, assisted for a PC, equaled Kasparov? > Thanks for having placed the question of clearer form. I believe the necessary ELO is something between 2400 and 2700 Uri > > >Paulo Soares, from Brazil.
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