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Subject: Re: Interesting opening statistics for man-machine competitions

Author: Darrel Briley

Date: 12:33:30 06/25/05

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On June 25, 2005 at 14:47:32, Robin Smith wrote:

>In a previous thread some people have been repeatedly stating that choosing
>1...e5 as a human’s defense against 1.e5 is a very poor choice. They said
>practice has repeatedly shown this. I posted some games to the contrary and was
>accused of "cherry picking" (which was true enough). So I decided to go back and
>look at all the recent man-machine matches between strong humans and strong
>computers. The results were a surprise, even for me. The matches I looked at
>were:
>
>Deep Blue-Kasparov 1996, Deep Blue-Kasparov 1997, Deep Fritz-Kramnik 2002,
>Rebel-van Wely 2002, X3D Fritz-Kasparov 2003, Hiarcs-Bareev 2003 and
>Junior-Kasparov 2003
>
>I may have missed some matches, but if I did it was not my intention or cherry
>picking. I deliberately excluded Hydra-Adams, since the discussions have been
>about Adam's supposedly poor decision making process in choosing 1...e5 as his
>defense of choice, and this decision had to be made prior to the match. I also
>only looked at games where the computer played white, since that is what the
>ruckus has all been about.
>
>The results from the above matches were:
>
>1.e4 e5    white (computer) scored 50% in 5 games
>1.e4 other white (computer) scored 68% in 11 games
>not 1.e4   white (computer) scored 67% in 3 games
>
>If I were Adams, and 1...e5 was the mainstay of my opening repertior, I would
>not see anything in these statistics to change my mind. Perhaps people who have
>been vociferous about Adams "poor opening choice" may have been coloring their
>thinking based on Crafty blitz games on ICC. These are hardly the games upon
>which to make ones opening choices for a serious tournament time control match
>with money on the line.
>
>Below is a table of results for the games. Scores are from the white (computer)
>perspective.
>
>               opening:	1.e4 e5		  1.e4 other	   not 1.e4
>	event		score  # games	  score	 # games  score	# games
>Deep Blue-Kasparov 1996	0       1	  1.5	 2	   0	 0
>Deep Blue-Kasparov 1997	1	1	  1.5	 2	   0	 0
>Deep Fritz-Kramnik 2002	0.5	2	  0	 0	   1.5	 2
>Rebel-van Wely 2002	0	0	  2	 2	   0	 0
>X3D Fritz-Kasparov 2003	1	1	  0	 0	   0.5	 1
>Hiarcs-Bareev 2003	0	0	  1	 2	   0	 0
>Junior-Kasparov 2003	0	0	  1.5	 3	   0	 0
>	total		2.5	5	  7.5	 11	   2	 3
>	score		50%		  68%		   67%
>
>-Robin

Perhaps there isn't anything in these statistics to make Adams deviate from his
opening repetoire, but there's plenty of reason given his results.

                               DB



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