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Subject: Re: Toga II 1.0 Test (40'/40) After 550 games / 11 Matches

Author: Fabien Letouzey

Date: 01:21:08 09/05/05

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On September 04, 2005 at 04:29:33, Greg Simpson wrote:

>Likelihood of superiority:
>                  To Fr Fr Th Ch Ju Sh Hi Sp Ga Ru Li To Ar
>Toga II 1.0          69 81 88 89 95 99 99 98 98 99 99 97 99
>Fritz 8           30    53 68 69 81 91 93 92 92 96 97 93 99
>Fruit 2.1         18 46    71 71 85 95 96 94 94 98 99 96 99
>The King 3.33     11 31 28    50 65 80 84 85 85 90 93 87 96
>Chess Tiger 15.0  10 30 28 49    65 80 84 85 85 90 93 87 96
>Junior 9           4 18 14 34 34    67 72 75 75 81 85 80 92
>Shredder 9         0  8  4 19 19 32    56 61 61 68 73 69 83
>Hiarcs 9           0  6  3 15 15 27 43    56 56 62 67 65 79
>Spike 1.0 Mainz    1  7  5 14 14 24 38 43    50 55 59 59 71
>Gandalf 6.0        1  7  5 14 14 24 38 43 49    54 59 59 71
>Ruffian 2.1.0      0  3  1  9  9 18 31 37 44 45    55 56 69
>List 512           0  2  0  6  6 14 26 32 40 40 44    52 64
>Toga II 0.93       2  6  3 12 12 19 30 34 40 40 43 47    58
>Aristarch 4.50     0  0  0  3  3  7 16 20 28 28 30 35 41
>
>I'm not too certain how much to trust the second one.

Hi,

Here's what I do.

You're interested in knowing whether Toga is actually stronger than Fruit,
right?  Lookup the corresponding number in the "los" table, that's 81%.

It's up to you which value is big enough for "statistical proof".  I use 95.  In
this case it means there is not enough data to conclude that Toga is stronger.
Maybe it is (in that case more games would tell), maybe it isn't, we still don't
know.

Important side node: you need to decide which "los" entry you're going to read
BEFORE looking at the table.  Scanning the table and finding a large number
won't do, as this would violate the statistical assumptions.  That's the same
problem as entering 10 engine versions in a tournament and only looking at the
one with best result.

Fabien.




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