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Subject: Re: An Experiment that disproves Hyatt's 1000X NPS Theory

Author: Peter Kappler

Date: 12:53:32 09/20/05

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>>>(1) deep thought (deep blue's direct predecessor) was the first (and only)
>>>program to produce a 2650+ performance result, playing games only against GM
>>>players, at 40 moves in 2 hours only for the time control.  It did this over 25
>>>consecutive games (intervening games could not be ignored if the result was
>>>bad).  No other program has yet accomplished this.
>>>
>>
>>This was impressive 10 years ago, but today any commercial program (and probably
>>a fair number of amateurs) could easily accomplish this feat running on ordinary
>>hardware.
>>
>
>Why haven't we seen it happen?  Note I am not talking about the much faster time
>controls we have seen more of lately.  But real 40 moves in 2 hours.  I don't
>believe _any_ program today could pull this off on "ordinary" hardware.  They
>would be hard-pressed using very high-end (say quad opteron) systems...
>

There are so many examples it's hard to know where to begin.  I'll just list a
few.

Chess Tiger 14 - Argentina 2001 - 2788 performance rating  (P3-866)
http://www.rebel.nl/resu.htm

Shredder 7 - Argentina 2003 - 2753 performance rating.
http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=1111

Shredder 9 - Argentina 2005 - 2758 performance rating.     (P4-3500)
http://www.chessbase.com/newsprint.asp?newsid=2538

And many more.  (Note this article was written in 2003)
http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=1141


>>>(3) deep blue was 100x faster than deep thought 2, with more chess knowledge
>>>than deep thought 2, and this is the box that beat Kasparov in a 6 game match.
>>>
>>>It is certainly possible that todays fastest computers, running today's best
>>>commercial programs, are playing at an equal level when compared to deep blue,
>>>although the Kramnik/etc matches were played at faster time controls generally,
>>>than 40 moves in 2 hours.  But at best the best micros of today are maybe as
>>>strong as the 1997 deep blue system.  Far from being far superior to it.  Based
>>>solely on the observations given above.  Each of which can easily be verified
>>>multiple ways...
>>
>>
>>I'm not sure how you reached the conclusion that DB '97 is an upper bound for
>>the strength of todays micros.  It certainly doesn't follow from the
>>"observations given above".
>>
>
>
>The GM results of 2M nodes per seconds, vs the DB hardware 100X faster.  What PC
>today could do better than a 2650 performance against GMs at 40/2???
>

Every single commercial and probably at least the top 5 amateurs.

-Peter




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