Author: Günther Simon
Date: 07:22:00 10/17/05
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On October 17, 2005 at 10:10:58, Uri Blass wrote: >I am now surprised by the big drop in the CEGT rating of my Fruit personality. > >It was already 2806 after 92 games and now it is 2748 after 223 games. > >I also remember possible error of 61 elo after 92 games but even if the real >rating is 61 elo lower than 2806 then I still do not expect the rating to change >so fast. > >This is surprising also because results that I read earlier not by CEGT >supported my personality. > >I wonder if the real error is not higher than the error that is written > Even if the error bars show what they should, they are by default calculated for a likelihood of 95%. Which means there is a 5% probability that the error bars are different anyway. Of course the reasons you named later in your post also could have influenced the unexpected margin of the drop. Guenther
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