Author: KarinsDad
Date: 21:21:29 03/21/99
Go up one level in this thread
On March 21, 1999 at 12:57:22, Pat King wrote: >No true stats, but true probabilities here, which fairly closely match Karin's >actual results. This was an effort to predict outcome of Yermo-Hiarcs match, >assuming an expected score of 0.67/round for Yermo and a GM draw rate of 30%. >E(1) = 0.67 and P(0.5) = 0.3 -> P(1) = 0.52, P(0) = 0.18 for one game (note that >this could account for Unruh's perception of the general lack of losses for >higher rated players... the draw rate has a big effect on win/loss ratio). Maybe. >Extrapolating for a six round match, > >P(0.0) 0.0000 >P(0.5) 0.0003 >P(1.0) 0.0054 >P(1.5) 0.0081 >P(2.0) 0.0214 >P(2.5) 0.0583 >P(3.0) 0.1108 >P(3.5) 0.1684 >P(4.0) 0.2051 >P(4.5) 0.1944 >P(5.0) 0.1398 >P(5.5) 0.0684 >P(6.0) 0.0198 > >So Yermo will have to beat 50:1 odds to go 6 for 6. Bigger odds than I thought >when I made the statement earlier in this thread that a 6.0 for Yermo wouldn't >be significant, but even beating these odds only once isn't conclusive for me. > >Pat > >P.S. the Quattro Pro spreadsheet with these calcs is available at >ftp://ftp.mindspring.com/~p_m_king/yermo.wb3 This set of probabilities would be fairly close except for 2 things: 1) There is no "established" rating for H7 in this configuration, so it is an assumption that it is 2500 (I didn't check the numbers in case you based it off of something other than 2500). 2) Yermo is not getting paid per win and per draw. Hence, he has no financial incentive (although he may have a personal motivation) to get a score higher than 3.5. Hence, the probabilites above (assuming a 2500 H7 rating) for 3.5 and 4.0 should be higher and the probabilities for 5.0 through 6.0 should be lower (the probabilities for 4.5 may be fairly close). KarinsDad
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