Author: Albert Silver
Date: 15:14:21 01/30/06
Go up one level in this thread
>Let me put it like this: that is the chance at this point (ie. just based on the
>games you list above, without any further testing) that your hypothesis is
>correct?
>
>If you analyze it "statistically", you might get some figure like (let's say)
>30%. Just a total wild guess, eyeballing your numbers.
>
>In reality, though, it's probably more like 3%.
>
>The reason is that before your experiment started, there were let's say 20
>candidate hypotheses, that you didn't even bother to list. Maybe ultrasolid is
>worse against Fritz, maybe it's better in closed positions, etc. One of these
>hypetheses is likely to get lucky, and this hypothesis will then of course have
>very nice data to support it.
>
>Anyway, there is nothing wrong with this procedure, as long as you eventually
>test your hypothesis "straight up".
>
>Vas
By "straight up", do you mean it is tested alone without any other parameters
influencing? If so, wouldn't that go against the theory that each parameter is
independent of the other and should bring its fruits?
Still, I *have* noticed that UltraSolid has scored better with Fritz 9 and worse
with Fruit 2.2. I tested it alone, and I tested it with other settings, and this
observation is a result of this consistent difference. Hurd's results, using a
different set of positions (I used the Silver Suite, and he the Nunn2) tends to
corroborate this. It is the key reason I insist on not just trying a zillion
games against one opponent, but split it up among several, and hopefully remove
this problem and get a better idea as to its worth. Even if that means it is
unconclusive, since that would mean it was inconclusive after 200 games and 4
opponents, as opposed to zero data, or 200 games against the same opponent.
Note that my suite hardly covers it all, but it does provide a decent variety of
openings, and types of positions.
Albert
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