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Subject: Deep Blue Jr.... Will History Repeat Itself??

Author: Steven Schwartz

Date: 07:49:27 05/04/99

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On May 04, 1999 at 09:40:05, Steve Lopez wrote:
[snip]
>There's no way I'm going to try to talk somebody via phone through the process
>of inserting a chip or card into their computer. No matter how much the chip or
>card retailed for, the company would *lose* money on the tech support calls.


Perhaps you recall the TASC 128K, 512K, and 1 Meg TASC Chess Machines,
first introduced in 1991.

These were cards that needed to be implanted in the expansion slots of PCs.
And, back then, customers were much less savvy than they are now about
personal computers.

Yes, support was somewhat more intensive, but not outrageous, and I
cannot recall (although recollection gets fuzzier with age) a single
situation in which we could not get the customer through the process
successfully without bankrupting our toll-free phone budget.

More interesting, I think, is what eventually happened to the
Chess Machines, and how their demise might foreshadow a possible
bumpy road for a DB Junior card or chip.

The Chess Machine was a self-contained expansion card that contained
an advanced microprocessor and a chess program. It did not depend
upon the speed of the PC. Consequently, a consumer with the cheapest
and slowest PC on the block could still have the best and fastest
chess playing program if he had the Chess Machine.

The Chess Machine was SO much stronger (and faster) than the XTs that
they sold for $650 and people were willing to spend the money. Then
when the AT was introduced, the difference was not so pronounced, so
the Chess Machines came down to about $300.

As the ATs started piling on the MHz, the Chess Machines lost even more
of their edge and fell to $200, and when the Pentium was introduced,
there was no longer any need for a card because the speed of the Pentium
exceeded that of the card and all that was needed was a (relatively
inexpensive) piece of software to get the best "bang for the buck".

If IBM comes to market with a card, they will need to be prepared to
continue to improve upon that card with the same vigor that Intel (and
others) put into making faster and faster PC chips, because no matter
what advantage DB Junior has on the day it is introduced, you can be
absolutely certain that PCs will not stop getting faster - until they
eventually catch up and exceed the speed of the IBM card.

History has a way of repeating itself.

- Steve (ICD/Your Move)



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