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Subject: Maximum ELO

Author: Christoph Fieberg

Date: 14:31:47 06/08/99


Humans are far away from playing perfect chess but computers will come more and
more closer to it. At the turn of the century the best computer (Deep Blue) and
the best human (G. Kasparov) are roughly at the same level of about Elo 2800. I
assume that this will not last very long and that in the next 20 years the best
computer (X1) will score 80% against the best human meaning that will see chess
at Elo level 3040.

I could imagine that if chess software and computer hardware will steadly be
improved one of the next chess computer generation (X2) will beat the
predecessor (X1) finally also with a 80% score pushing the Elo level up to 3280.

X3 will do the same with X2 (Elo level then 3520), X4 will do the same with X3
(Elo level then 3760) and so on and so on. X5 reachs Elo 4000 and after some
hundred years X30 will gain Elo 10000!

If it was ever possible that computers played absolutely perfect chess the
MAXIMUM Elo number would be determined.

The gnawing question is: HOW HIGH IS THE MAXIMUM ELO NUMBER?

Or in other words: How far are humans and computers away from playing perfect
chess?

Regards,
Christoph Fieberg



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